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« Strategy Memo: Happy Warriors | Blog Home Page | Pawlenty To NPC »

MS: Wicker +1

A new survey, conducted 7/21-23 by independent pollster Research 2000 on behalf of the Democratic-leaning blog DailyKos, polled 600 likely Mississippi voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Those voters were 45% Republican, 40% Democratic and 15% independents or others, while the sample was 63% white and 37% African American. Appointed Senator Roger Wicker, a Republican, and former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom / Wht / Blk)
Wicker........45 / 6 / 81 / 43 / 49 / 41 / 67 / 8 (-2 from last, 12/07)
Musgrove...44 / 85 / 6 / 46 / 41 / 47 / 26 / 75 (+5)

McCain.......51 / 10 / 89 / 51 / 54 / 42 / 78 / 4
Obama........42 / 84 / 5 / 40 / 37 / 47 / 19 / 81

Wicker is polling ahead in both his base, in the Northeast corner of the state, and in the Southeast, where he leads Musgrove by a 47%-41% margin. That's good news for his campaign, which has been concerned about his relative lack of name recognition along the coast, thanks to his years representing the northern First District in the House. Musgrove owns a big lead in the Mississippi Delta and around Jackson.

Democrats have long held out hope for stronger than expected turnout among African American voters they think could help boost them in key Southern states. Mississippi is 36% African American, while those voters made up 34% of the state's electorate in 2004, according to national exit polls. If turnout among such a reliable Democratic voting bloc doesn't grow much beyond the 37% within this sample, Musgrove is going to have serious work to do among white voters if the party has any shot at winning Wicker's seat.