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Dem Leads NC Rematch

In a rematch of one of the most closely contested races of 2006, high school teacher Larry Kissell is running ahead of Republican Rep. Robin Hayes, a new poll for the Democrat's campaign shows. Two years ago, Kissell, who national Democrats did not pay attention to until late in the cycle, came just 329 votes from knocking off the five-term incumbent.

The poll, conducted for Kissell's campaign by Anzalone Liszt Research, surveyed 600 likely voters between 6/8-14 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Kissell and Hayes were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
Kissell.....................45
Hayes.....................43

Generic Dem...........49
Generic GOPer........32

Hayes is still viewed largely positively, with 50% thinking of his job performance positively and 33% viewing it negatively. But in this district, being a Republican is what keeps Hayes down. President Bush took a nine-point win in the seat, which runs from the Charlotte suburbs to the Fayetteville suburbs, but Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain by a significant 50% to 37% this year.

Add to that the fact that African American voters will make up a much larger portion of the electorate than they did in 2006 and Hayes could face serious problems. Almost 27% of the district is black, and should they turn out in high numbers, Kissell is likely to benefit.

Still, Hayes has a significant cash advantage. The incumbent has $987,000 cash on hand, through April 16, while Kissell had just $131,000 in reserve. In 2006, Hayes outspent Kissell about three to one. The seat is one in which national Democrats' big financial advantage could alleviate an otherwise strong candidate's weak money position.