Though she is widely believed to be one of the most vulnerable first-term Democrats in the country, Kansas Rep. Nancy Boyda may be in better shape than initially thought, a new survey conducted for national Democrats shows. Leaked to Politics Nation and other political news outlets, the poll's authenticity was verified by a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee source.

The survey, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research on behalf of the DCCC, surveyed 403 voters between 5/12-15 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Boyda, ex-Rep. Jim Ryun and state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, both Republican candidates, were surveyed.

General Election Matchups (With leaners)
Boyda.........54
Ryun...........37

Boyda.........57
Jenkins........27

Despite some missteps in her first term, Boyda is hugely popular, if the poll is to be believed. 68% of respondents in her district said she was doing an excellent or good job, while just 21% had a negative impression of her job performance. 54% said they would definitely or probably vote to re-elect Boyda, while just 35% said they would give someone else a shot.

Republicans face an August 5 primary between Ryun, who Boyda beat in 2006, and Jenkins, widely seen as the more moderate of the two. The poll also tested the primary between the two Republicans, though without disclosing the size of the subsample. Ryun, a former track star famous in his state, led by a wide 49%-35% margin.

The late primary, just three months before Election Day, will force Ryun and Jenkins to spend much of their money on each other rather than on Boyda, who already has a financial advantage. Through the end of March, Boyda had $814,000 in the bank, while Jenkins held $486,000 in reserve and Ryun kept $459,000 around. Ryun had outraised both his opponents by wide margins, but much of that money went to paying off debt from last cycle.

In short, Boyda should be in serious jeopardy in her eastern Kansas district, which includes Topeka and Manhattan. The district gave President Bush a twenty-point win in 2004, the same year Ryun beat Boyda by a fifteen-point margin. And she's not on the DCCC's Frontline list of endangered members, after making clear she would not participate in the project to appear more independent to her district. But if the latest poll is accurate, Boyda may have struck a cord that would keep her safe in her first bid for re-election.