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« Strategy Memo: The Blue Collar Belle | Blog Home Page | Dems' Mixed Results In NH »

Shaheen Still Up In NH

The rematch between former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen and incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu has reached a consistent plateau, as a new poll shows. Shaheen is clearly ahead, and by a wide margin. Both candidates are raising huge sums of money, and Sununu, who has been conspicuously absent from the campaign trail, can take solace from the fact that voters have yet to seriously tune in.

The Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between 4/25-30, surveyed 456 likely voters for a margin of error of 4.9%. Both Shaheen and Sununu were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Shaheen 52 / 86 / 14 / 52 / 48 / 57 (-3 from last, 2/08)
Sununu 40 / 10 / 78 / 33 / 47 / 35 (+3)

Despite the movement toward Sununu, it's now been nearly a year since the first time the two candidates were matched up, and in all four surveys Shaheen has led by double digits and scored more than 50% of the vote. Sununu is the least popular of the three politicians tested -- 48% view him favorably, while 37% see him unfavorably. That compares with senior Senator Judd Gregg's 52%-27% favorable to unfavorable ratio, and Shaheen's 56%-29% number.

Shaheen, too, has out-campaigned the incumbent so far. With frequent stops throughout the state, Shaheen has stood in marked contrast to Sununu, who has yet to establish a serious campaign presence. Even calls from the media are returned by a spokeswoman in Washington. Sununu has time to claw back, but he had better start soon.