Topics
Administration
Congress
Democrats
Elections
Ethics
Governor -- Alabama
Governor -- Alaska
Governor -- Arizona
Governor -- California
Governor -- Colorado
Governor -- Connecticut
Governor -- Delaware
Governor -- Florida
Governor -- Georgia
Governor -- Hawaii
Governor -- Illinois
Governor -- Indiana
Governor -- Iowa
Governor -- Kentucky
Governor -- Louisiana
Governor -- Maryland
Governor -- Massachusetts
Governor -- Michigan
Governor -- Minnesota
Governor -- Missouri
Governor -- Montana
Governor -- Nevada
Governor -- New Hampshire
Governor -- New Jersey
Governor -- New Mexico
Governor -- New York
Governor -- North Carolina
Governor -- North Dakota
Governor -- Ohio
Governor -- Oregon
Governor -- Pennsylvania
Governor -- Rhode Island
Governor -- South Carolina
Governor -- Texas
Governor -- Utah
Governor -- Vermont
Governor -- Virginia
Governor -- Washington
Governor -- Wyoming
Governors
Health Care
House
House -- Alabama -- 02
House -- Alabama -- 03
House -- Alabama -- 05
House -- Alaska
House -- Arizona -- 01
House -- Arizona -- 03
House -- Arizona -- 05
House -- Arizona -- 08
House -- Arkansas -- 01
House -- Arkansas -- 02
House -- California -- 04
House -- California -- 12
House -- California -- 26
House -- California -- 32
House -- California -- 50
House -- Colorado -- 02
House -- Colorado -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 05
House -- Florida -- 06
House -- Florida -- 08
House -- Florida -- 13
House -- Florida -- 15
House -- Florida -- 16
House -- Florida -- 18
House -- Florida -- 19
House -- Florida -- 21
House -- Florida -- 24
House -- Florida -- 25
House -- Georgia -- 05
House -- Georgia -- 10
House -- Georgia -- 12
House -- Idaho -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 03
House -- Illinois -- 05
House -- Illinois -- 06
House -- Illinois -- 10
House -- Illinois -- 11
House -- Illinois -- 14
House -- Illinois -- 18
House -- Indiana -- 03
House -- Indiana -- 07
House -- Indiana -- 09
House -- Iowa -- 03
House -- Iowa -- 04
House -- Kansas -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 03
House -- Louisiana -- 01
House -- Louisiana -- 02
House -- Louisiana -- 04
House -- Louisiana -- 06
House -- Maine -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 04
House -- Massachusetts -- 05
House -- Michigan -- 01
House -- Michigan -- 07
House -- Michigan -- 09
House -- Michigan -- 13
House -- Minnesota -- 01
House -- Minnesota -- 03
House -- Minnesota -- 06
House -- Mississippi -- 01
House -- Mississippi -- 03
House -- Missouri -- 09
House -- Nevada -- 02
House -- Nevada -- 03
House -- New Hampshire -- 01
House -- New Hampshire -- 02
House -- New Jersey -- 03
House -- New Jersey -- 05
House -- New Jersey -- 07
House -- New Mexico -- 01
House -- New Mexico -- 02
House -- New York -- 13
House -- New York -- 15
House -- New York -- 20
House -- New York -- 21
House -- New York -- 23
House -- New York -- 24
House -- New York -- 25
House -- New York -- 26
House -- New York -- 29
House -- North Carolina -- 03
House -- North Carolina -- 08
House -- North Carolina -- 10
House -- North Dakota
House -- Ohio -- 01
House -- Ohio -- 02
House -- Ohio -- 05
House -- Ohio -- 07
House -- Ohio -- 10
House -- Ohio -- 15
House -- Ohio -- 16
House -- Oklahoma -- 05
House -- Oregon -- 05
House -- Pennsylvania -- 03
House -- Pennsylvania -- 04
House -- Pennsylvania -- 06
House -- Pennsylvania -- 10
House -- Pennsylvania -- 11
House -- Pennsylvania -- 12
House -- Pennsylvania -- 15
House -- South Carolina -- 01
House -- South Carolina -- 02
House -- South Carolina -- 05
House -- South Dakota
House -- Tennessee -- 07
House -- Tennessee -- 08
House -- Tennessee -- 09
House -- Texas -- 07
House -- Texas -- 10
House -- Texas -- 14
House -- Texas -- 22
House -- Utah -- 03
House -- Virginia -- 01
House -- Virginia -- 05
House -- Virginia -- 09
House -- Virginia -- 11
House -- Washington -- 08
House -- West Virginia -- 02
House -- Wisconsin -- 08
House -- Wyoming
Inauguration 2009
International
Issues
Judiciary
Local Elections
Media
Miscellaneous
Morning Thoughts
Politics Weekly
Polls
Rankings
Republicans
Senate
Senate -- Alaska
Senate -- Arizona
Senate -- Arkansas
Senate -- California
Senate -- Colorado
Senate -- Connecticut
Senate -- Delaware
Senate -- Florida
Senate -- Georgia
Senate -- Idaho
Senate -- Illinois
Senate -- Indiana
Senate -- Iowa
Senate -- Kansas
Senate -- Kentucky
Senate -- Louisiana
Senate -- Maine
Senate -- Massachusetts
Senate -- Minnesota
Senate -- Mississippi
Senate -- Missouri
Senate -- Montana
Senate -- Nebraska
Senate -- Nevada
Senate -- New Hampshire
Senate -- New Jersey
Senate -- New Mexico
Senate -- New York
Senate -- North Carolina
Senate -- North Dakota
Senate -- Ohio
Senate -- Oklahoma
Senate -- Oregon
Senate -- Pennsylvania
Senate -- South Carolina
Senate -- South Dakota
Senate -- Tennessee
Senate -- Texas
Senate -- Utah
Senate -- Virginia
Senate -- Wisconsin
Senate -- Wyoming
Sports
Supreme Court
WH 08
WH 08 -- Democrats
WH 08 -- Republicans
WH 12
WH 12 -- Republicans
White House

 

« Shaheen Still Up In NH | Blog Home Page | Down-Ballot Drama »

Dems' Mixed Results In NH

Few states saw a greater shift toward Democrats in 2006 than New Hampshire. Along with both chambers of the legislature, the party out of power also took back both House seats, beating incumbent Republicans Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley in the process. This year, while Democrats are committed to keeping those two seats, a new poll shows Republicans might have a good shot at displacing at least one of those freshmen.

Freshman Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes' Second District encompasses the state's northern reaches and western border with Vermont, as well as virtually all of Merrimack County, including the state capitol in Concord, and the southern city of Nashua. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's First District is smaller geographically, stretching from Manchester to the Seacoast city of Portsmouth and north through Carroll County and Laconia.

The Granite State Poll, taken by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between 4/25-30, tested both of the state's districts. In the First District, where the sample size of 249 led to a margin of error of +/- 6%, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter was surveyed alongside ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley and former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Bradley 45 / 13 / 80 / 41 / 51 / 40
Shea-Porter 39 / 78 / 8 / 21 / 39 / 39

Shea-Porter 43 / 80 / 10 / 32 / 46 / 40
Stephen 35 / 5 / 69 / 22 / 40 / 30

Shea-Porter has so far refused help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, preferring to run her campaign as she did in 2006, when the national party saw her as a sure loser and focused instead on the Second District. And Bradley remains a popular figure -- 43% view him favorably to just 23% who see him unfavorably. That's much better than Shea-Porter's ratio of 39%-28% favorable to unfavorable.

Bradley and Stephen faced off in the 2002 Republican primary, which Bradley narrowly won. This year, they will meet in the September primary, and if the race turns ugly, Shea-Porter could be the beneficiary. But if Bradley emerges as a relatively unscathed winner, he could reverse what may have been a fluke to win back his seat in Congress.

The neighboring Second District poll surveyed 251 residents for the same 6% margin of error. Along with freshman Rep. Paul Hodes, State Senator Bob Clegg and radio talk show host Jennifer Horn were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Hodes 51 / 84 / 9 / 42 / 46 / 55
Clegg 24 / 2 / 58 / 18 / 27 / 22

Hodes 52 / 82 / 21 / 33 / 45 / 58
Horn 25 / 4 / 49 / 29 / 29 / 21

Hodes, who beat out moderate Rep. Charlie Bass to win the more Democratic of the two seats, looks like a safer bet for re-election than Shea-Porter, not only because of his superior fundraising -- at nearly $1.3 million through March, he's outraised Shea-Porter ($662,000 raised) and Bradley ($566,000 raised) combined -- but also thanks to his lack of serious opposition. Neither Clegg nor Horn are competitive financially.