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« Is Edwards In The Hunt? | Blog Home Page | Dems Race To Replace Udall »

Dems' Tough Road In MS

Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief today as new numbers out of Mississippi show Sen. Trent Lott's resignation opens a seat they have an excellent chance at retaining. The poll, another in a series taken for DailyKos by Maryland-based Research 2000, shows possible GOP candidates running well ahead of any Democrat with whom they are matched.

Taken between 12/10-12, the poll tested former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove and former Attorney General Mike Moore, who has since said he will not run. On the GOP side, Reps. Roger Wicker and Chip Pickering were tested. Six hundred likely voters were included in the sample for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Wicker 47 / 8 / 79 / 48
Musgrove 39 / 78 / 7 / 37

Wicker 46 / 8 / 78 / 47
Moore 39 / 77 / 7 / 37

Pickering 45 / 6 / 78 / 45
Musgrove 39 / 78 / 7 / 37

Pickering 45 / 7 / 77 / 46
Moore 41 / 80 / 8 / 40

Fav/Unfav
Wicker 49 / 17
Pickering 46 / 19
Moore 45 / 27
Musgrove 41 / 28

Gov. Haley Barbour is unlikely to choose Pickering, many believe, because he had already declared he would not seek re-election in 2008. And given that Moore is out, a Wicker-Musgrove matchup looks more likely. In that contest, Democrats might have a shot, but it would be a long one, and Wicker, who looks like the front-runner to be appointed to Lott's seat, would have an added boost of sort-of-incumbency.

Democrats could use their financial advantage over the NRSC to run a few advertisements in Mississippi, but Republicans have to be happy with the way the seat looks for now.