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Pennsylvania - 10

Polling Data

PollDateSampleSherwood (R)Carney (D)Und.Spread
Lycoming College10/22 - 10/26643 LV384715Carney +9
Keystone Poll10/19 - 10/23384 LV394813Carney +9
Momentum Analysis (D)10/9 - 10/11400 LV3752--Carney +15
Bennett, Petts (D)10/8 - 10/9400 LV3751--Carney +14
Lycoming College9/24 - 9/28804 LV384715Carney +9
RT Strategies/CD8/27 - 8/291,008 RV43507Carney +7
Momentum Analysis (D)4/20 - 4/23400 LV4943--Sherwood +6
Key State Races: Senate | Governor | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10

(October 21) President Bush was here on Thursday trying to give Sherwood a boost in the home stretch. Sherwood has big, big troubles but this is a Republican district that gave Bush 60% just two years ago. Santorum’s people will be in here hard which may spill over and help Sherwood on the margins, but were skeptical that he can pull this race out.

(October 6) Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District is one of the most conservative in the entire Commonwealth. It occupies the Northeast corner of the state – excluding Scranton and Wilkes-Barre – as well as a sliver of central Pennsylvania. The result is a district that is overwhelmingly rural and Republican.

So – why is it up for grabs this year? The answer is its current representative – Don Sherwood. In 2004, Sherwood did not even have major party opposition. He took 93% of the vote against a Constitution Party candidate. He is in such a fight now because of his personal life. In 2004, a woman with whom Sherwood had been having a 5 year affair filed an assault charge against him. She also filed a $5.5 million lawsuit against him, which was eventually settled out of court. Sherwood admitted to the affair, but denied having assaulted her.

This kind of activity tends to be big time trouble in conservative districts like PA 10 – and Sherwood is neck-deep in it. (Click here for more....)

pa-10.gif Candidates
Don Sherwood (R)
Chris Carney (D)

Money Race

2004 Results
Sherwood (R) 93

Bush (R) 60
Kerry (D) 40

He only earned 56% of the primary vote against a political unknown this Spring. And, though he has drawn a politically inexperienced challenger – former Naval officer Chris Carney – he looks extremely weak. Carney just recently mentioned the affair in his advertising (though he has been pushing the “values” angle since his campaign began), and Sherwood only recently apologized for it and asked the public to move forward. All in all, the latter’s campaign, to say the least, has surely not alleviated Republican worries about his baggage. For what it is worth – district polling has shown Carney with a not insignificant lead.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the GOP is in major trouble in this district. It can be counted as the fifth where the actions of party elites have put the party’s hold on the seat in serious jeopardy: along with FL 16, TX 22, OH 18 and AZ 08. This must surely disappoint Republicans everywhere – to essentially cede the Democrats 1/3rd of what they need for control because of individual irresponsibility.