|Election 2006||Latest Polls||Senate Races||House Races||Governor Races|
|Poll||Date||Sample||Taylor (R)||Shuler (D)||Und.||Spread|
|OnPoint (D)||11/1 - 11/1||834 LV||43||52||5||Shuler +9|
|Reuters/Zogby||10/24 - 10/29||500 LV||43||48||5||Shuler +5|
|RT Strategies/CD||10/24 - 10/26||1002 LV||44||53||3||Shuler +9|
|RT Strategies/CD||10/8 - 10/10||979 LV||43||51||5||Shuler +8|
|Reuters/Zogby||9/25 - 10/2||500 LV||40||51||8||Shuler +11|
|RT Strategies/CD||8/27 - 8/29||1,021 RV||47||50||3||Shuler +3|
|Anzalone-Lizst (D)||5/4 - 5/8||400 LV||43||45||--||Shuler +2|
In October 2004 both public and Democratic polling showed Taylor’s Democratic opponent within 2 points, Taylor however went on to win by 10 points, 55% - 45%. Shuler should not feel like he is going to coast on to victory on the back of the RT/Strategies and Reuters/Zogby polling giving him an 8-11 point lead. House polling has been notoriously all over the place in many of these contested districts, for example in New York 20 an RT/Strategies poll released last Wednesday had the Democratic challenger up 13 points the exact same Siena College released a survey showing the Republican incumbent up 14 points. In Iowa 1 a recent Reuters/Zogby survey gives the Republican a 13-point edge at the same time many view the race to replace Jim Nussle in IA-1 as a very strong Democratic pick up possibility.
This North Carolina race is a true toss up and it may come down to how much money Taylor, who is worth over $50 million, is willing to spend in the closing weeks. If he spends the cash, he probably buys the small edge coming down the home stretch.
(October 6) North Carolina’s 11th district covers the western part of the state, including Asheville, Hendersonville and Murphy. It is very mountainous, characterized by small towns, and does not fit into stereotypical notions of the South. Nevertheless, the district is very conservative – giving George W. Bush 57% of the vote in 2004 – still elects lots of Democrats to state and local offices.
The representative from the 11th’s district is Charles Taylor, who has served here since 1990. Taylor is one of the wealthiest members of the House, and he self-funds his campaigns. His business success has been the source of repeated ethical questions raised about his finances, and these have served to get him in trouble in past elections. In 2004 and 2002, he won only 55% of the vote, well below what a long-serving member should be winning. (Click here for more...)
Taylor (R) 55
Keever (D) 45
Bush (R) 57
Kerry (D) 43
The big question (football metaphor alert): will Shuler perform as a Volunteer or as a Redskin? Zogby had Taylor down by 11%, though he also had the GOP in the lead in IA 01 – so who knows what is really going on in NC 11. This race is a toss-up in the true sense of the word: it is impossible to really identify who has the edge here. That means one thing: get out the vote efforts will be critical.