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New Mexico-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleWilson (R)Madrid (D)Und.Spread
SurveyUSA11/3 - 11/5688 LV48502Madrid +2
Albuquerque Journal11/1 - 11/2503 LV45496Madrid +4
Pub Op Str (R)10/31 - 11/2450 LV48465Wilson +2
Reuters/Zogby10/24 - 10/29500 LV44532Madrid +9
Albuquerque Journal10/17 - 10/19503 LV42459Madrid +3
SurveyUSA10/13 - 10/15470 LV45533Madrid +8
RT Strategies/CD10/8 - 10/10986 LV44524Madrid +8
Reuters/Zogby9/25 - 10/2500 LV40506Madrid +10
Albuquerque Journal9/25 - 9/28400 LV44447Tie
SurveyUSA9/18 - 9/20503 LV51463Wilson +5
Albuquerque Journal8/25 - 8/31410 LV454210Wilson +3
RT Strategies/CD8/27 - 8/291,010 RV48457Wilson +3
Lake Research (D)8/21 - 8/21400 LV464410Wilson +2
Lake Research (D)1/25 - 1/29400 LV4443--Wilson +1

New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District is made up of Albuquerque and most of its suburbs in Bernalillo County, and all of Torrance County. It is thus city, suburb and desert all in one. NM 01, like many of the districts in our top 10, gave George W. Bush a lower proportion of the two-party vote in 2004 than it did in 2000. The member from this district, which is about 2/5th Hispanic, is Heather Wilson, who has held the seat since a 1998 Special Election. Wilson faced a tough challenge from state senator Richard Romero in 2002 and 2004. She defeated him both times.

This time, she once again has her work cut out for her.Term-limited Attorney General Patricia Madrid is her opponent. Madrid has put together a very sizeable campaign war chest. The good news for Wilson: Madrid’s campaign has been tepid to date. In late August, the Albuquerque Tribune wrote that Madrid may have already lost the race because she has allowed Wilson to characterize her as being lax in her investigation of indicted state treasurer Robert Vigil. While the Journal is skeptical about the merits of the charge, they think that the politics of it have been devastating for Madrid. If this is so – it is bad news for Democrats. The “fundamentals” of this district make it a must-win if they wish to capture the House.




Heather Wilson (R)
Patricia Madrid (D)

Money Race

2004 Results
Wilson (R) 54
Romero (D) 46

Kerry (D) 51
Bush (R) 48