|Election 2006||Latest Polls||Senate Races||House Races||Governor Races|
|Poll||Date||Sample||Ferguson (R)||Stender (D)||Und.||Spread|
|RT Strategies/CD||10/24 - 10/26||1013 LV||46||43||11||Ferguson +3|
|Tarrance Group (R)||10/10 - 10/11||300 LV||48||33||--||Ferguson +15|
|RT Strategies/CD||10/8 - 10/10||1022 LV||48||46||5||Ferguson +2|
|Anzalone-Lizst (D)||10/3 - 10/5||400 LV||47||40||12||Ferguson +7|
|Anzalone-Lizst (D)||5/15 - 5/21||600 LV||46||33||11||Ferguson +13|
|Democracy Corps (D)||5/10 - 5/16||609 LV||54||35||11||Ferguson +19|
(September 3) This district extends east from Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley into the Newark Suburbs, almost to Staten Island. Michael Barone writes that, “It is an agglomeration of places, some of affluence, not a district with a distinct character.” It is one of those districts that, in 2004, gave Bush a “9/11 bump.” Bush carried it with 53% of the vote. Mike Ferguson has held it since 2000 – winning it with 57% of the vote last time. Ferguson’s opponent, State Assemblywoman Linda Stender, has done a good job in fundraising, and the DCCC recently announced it would be committing funds to this race.
The partisan tilt of the district, combined with Ferguson’s decent showings in 2004 and 2002, combined in no small measure with his impressive capacity to raise funds (nearly $3 million in 2004), make this a district that the GOP will probably keep – but also one in which the Democrats are smart to dedicate funds. A Democratic-sponsored poll in May had Ferguson at 54%, and nobody has released anything since.
Ferguson (R) 57
Brozak (D) 42
Bush (R) 53
Kerry (D) 47