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New Jersey - 7

Polling Data

PollDateSampleFerguson (R)Stender (D)Und.Spread
RT Strategies/CD10/24 - 10/261013 LV464311Ferguson +3
Tarrance Group (R)10/10 - 10/11300 LV4833--Ferguson +15
RT Strategies/CD10/8 - 10/101022 LV48465Ferguson +2
Anzalone-Lizst (D)10/3 - 10/5400 LV474012Ferguson +7
Anzalone-Lizst (D)5/15 - 5/21600 LV463311Ferguson +13
Democracy Corps (D)5/10 - 5/16609 LV543511Ferguson +19
Key State Races: Senate

(October 22) Ferguson looks to be weathering the storm this cycle; the average of two partisan polls taken in October (one Dem and one GOP) gives him a not insignificant 11 point lead. He won with 57% and 58% of the vote in his last two runs and while he may not get that much this time due to the anti-GOP national Generic Ballot, we doubt he gets less than 50%.

(September 3) This district extends east from Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley into the Newark Suburbs, almost to Staten Island. Michael Barone writes that, “It is an agglomeration of places, some of affluence, not a district with a distinct character.” It is one of those districts that, in 2004, gave Bush a “9/11 bump.” Bush carried it with 53% of the vote. Mike Ferguson has held it since 2000 – winning it with 57% of the vote last time. Ferguson’s opponent, State Assemblywoman Linda Stender, has done a good job in fundraising, and the DCCC recently announced it would be committing funds to this race.

The partisan tilt of the district, combined with Ferguson’s decent showings in 2004 and 2002, combined in no small measure with his impressive capacity to raise funds (nearly $3 million in 2004), make this a district that the GOP will probably keep – but also one in which the Democrats are smart to dedicate funds. A Democratic-sponsored poll in May had Ferguson at 54%, and nobody has released anything since.

Mike Ferguson (R)
Linda Stender (D)

Money Race

2004 Results
Ferguson (R) 57
Brozak (D) 42

Bush (R) 53
Kerry (D) 47