RealClearPolitics - Election 2006 - Colorado

Colorado - 7

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	O Donnell (R)	Perlmutter (D)	Und.	Spread
SurveyUSA	10/29 - 10/31	589 LV	38	54	2	Perlmutter +16
Reuters/Zogby	10/24 - 10/29	500 LV	40	54	5	Perlmutter +14
RT Strategies/CD	10/24 - 10/26	983 LV	46	51	4	Perlmutter +5
RT Strategies/CD	10/8 - 10/10	991 LV	47	47	5	Tie
Mason-Dixon	10/3 - 10/7	400 LV	39	45	11	Perlmutter +6
Reuters/Zogby	9/25 - 10/2	500 LV	34	45	21	Perlmutter +11
SurveyUSA	9/21 - 9/25	482 LV	37	54	6	Perlmutter +17
RT Strategies/CD	8/27 - 8/29	1,014 RV	46	48	6	Perlmutter +2
SurveyUSA	8/18 - 8/20	535 LV	45	45	6	Tie
Lake Research (D)	5/2 - 5/7	400 LV	38	32	--	O Donnell +6

Key State Races: Governor | CO-4 | CO-5 | CO-7

(October 13) The recent Mason-Dixon poll indicating O’Donnell pulling to within 6 points and the RT Strategies/CD poll showing this race tied has caused us to reconsider our October 4^th analysis that basically gave this seat to the Democrats. O’Donnell looks to be making this race competitive at the close here, but at the end of the day there are just too many factors working in Perlmutter’s favor for us not to think this is a strong likelihood for a Democratic pickup.

(October 4) Colorado is spiraling into a big headache for Republicans this year. Rep. Bob Beauprez’s decision to take a shot at the statehouse appears to imploding as he trails by over 15% in the latest RCP Average against Democrat Bill Ritter. While Rick O’Donnell appears to be doing a little better in his race to succeed Beauprez in CO-7, he is fighting a heavy headwind against Democratic state senator Ed Perlmutter. There is just little reason to believe Republicans will hold this seat without a massive momentum surge nationally to the GOP in the final weeks. (More below....)

Candidates
Rick O'Donnell (R)
Ed Perlmutter (D)

Money Race

2004 Results
Congress
Beauprez (R) 55
Thomas (D) 43

President
Bush (R) 52
Kerry (D) 47

(August 31) Colorado’s 7th District covers most of the northern, eastern and western inner suburbs of Denver and extends into neighboring Adams County. It is a new district, created in the wake of the 2000 census by a judge whose intention was to make it a toss-up district. The judge was successful. Bob Beauprez won it in a squeaker in 2002 – with a margin of less than 150 votes. He won reelection with 55% in 2004. This year, he is running for governor.

The Democrats have nominated former state senator Ed Perlmutter. The GOP has backed the state’s Higher Education Commission Chairman, Rick O’Donnell.

The reason the Democrats have an edge in this district is really reducible to the national mood. It is favoring Democrats this time around. In many vulnerable Republican districts, the GOP has a built-in cushion, thanks either to district partisanship or an incumbent running for reelection. Neither of those exist here – so, the Democrats will likely acquire this seat.

The GOP, however, still has rays of hope here – which is probably more than can be said for the Elephants in Sugar Land and Dubuque. Perlmutter, unlike O’Donnell, had to suffer through a difficult primary that left him, at least as of mid-July, strapped for cash. Again though, with district partisanship being at last count 50-50, the sour national mood gives Perlmutter, who is guaranteed to get lots of assistance from Democrats to replenish his cash supply, the edge.