|Election 2006||Latest Polls||Senate Races||House Races||Governor Races|
|Poll||Date||Sample||O Donnell (R)||Perlmutter (D)||Und.||Spread|
|SurveyUSA||10/29 - 10/31||589 LV||38||54||2||Perlmutter +16|
|Reuters/Zogby||10/24 - 10/29||500 LV||40||54||5||Perlmutter +14|
|RT Strategies/CD||10/24 - 10/26||983 LV||46||51||4||Perlmutter +5|
|RT Strategies/CD||10/8 - 10/10||991 LV||47||47||5||Tie|
|Mason-Dixon||10/3 - 10/7||400 LV||39||45||11||Perlmutter +6|
|Reuters/Zogby||9/25 - 10/2||500 LV||34||45||21||Perlmutter +11|
|SurveyUSA||9/21 - 9/25||482 LV||37||54||6||Perlmutter +17|
|RT Strategies/CD||8/27 - 8/29||1,014 RV||46||48||6||Perlmutter +2|
|SurveyUSA||8/18 - 8/20||535 LV||45||45||6||Tie|
|Lake Research (D)||5/2 - 5/7||400 LV||38||32||--||O Donnell +6|
Beauprez (R) 55
Thomas (D) 43
Bush (R) 52
Kerry (D) 47
The Democrats have nominated former state senator Ed Perlmutter. The GOP has backed the state’s Higher Education Commission Chairman, Rick O’Donnell.
The reason the Democrats have an edge in this district is really reducible to the national mood. It is favoring Democrats this time around. In many vulnerable Republican districts, the GOP has a built-in cushion, thanks either to district partisanship or an incumbent running for reelection. Neither of those exist here – so, the Democrats will likely acquire this seat.
The GOP, however, still has rays of hope here – which is probably more than can be said for the Elephants in Sugar Land and Dubuque. Perlmutter, unlike O’Donnell, had to suffer through a difficult primary that left him, at least as of mid-July, strapped for cash. Again though, with district partisanship being at last count 50-50, the sour national mood gives Perlmutter, who is guaranteed to get lots of assistance from Democrats to replenish his cash supply, the edge.