Polls

West Virginia Senate - Republican Primary

|

Primary Election: May 8th, 2018

Candidates

Patrick Morrisey

Patrick Morrisey

Bio | Campaign Site

Evan Jenkins

Evan Jenkins

Bio | Campaign Site

Don Blankenship

Don Blankenship

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Morrisey
Jenkins
Blankenship
Spread
Final Results------34.829.220.0Morrisey +5.6
FOX NewsFOX News4/18 - 4/22985 LV3.0212516Jenkins +4
National Research (R)National Research (R)4/17 - 4/19411 LV--242012Morrisey +4




Race Analysis


Like Kentucky, West Virginia is technically part of the 13 original Colonies by way of its initial attachment to Virginia. Unlike Kentucky though, which was separated from Virginia after the first Congress, it took West Virginia until 1863 to achieve independent status. When the Civil War arrived, West Virginians no longer needed the consent of the mother state to break off, and so 55 counties formed the state of Kanawha -- named after the Kanawha River; a month later it was renamed "West Virginia" and was subsequently admitted to the Union.

The state initially leaned toward the Republican Party, but during the Great Depression the arrival of the United Mine Workers caused a re-alignment. Until recently, the state almost exclusively sent Democrats to Washington.

In 2010, voters elected Gov. Joe Manchin, a popular social conservative who fits the state well, to replace legendary Sen. Robert Byrd. Manchin was elected to a full term in 2012.  But the state has shifted considerably toward the Republicans since Manchin won his seat, and the Party of Lincoln now controls almost all of the statewide offices, the congressional delegation, and the state legislature.  There is a heated primary between Massey Coal C.E.O. Don Blankenship, Rep. Evan Jenkins, and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.  Donald Trump is still popular in this state, and this race will severely test the degree to which popular incumbents with idiosyncratic ideologies can win in states where their party identification no longer matches up with the state’s.