RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - New York Senate - Farley vs. Gillibrand


New York Senate - Farley vs. Gillibrand



Kirsten Gillibrand

Kirsten Gillibrand (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Chele Farley

Chele Farley (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New York Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Safe Dem
Key 2018 Races:
 GovernorSenateNY-1NY-3 | NY-11 
NY-18 | NY-19NY-22NY-24NY-27

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: President | NY-1 | NY-3 | NY-19 | NY-21 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24
: NY-1 | NY-4 | NY-11 | NY-18 | NY-19| NY-21 | NY-23 | NY-24
President | Senate | House
2010Gov | Sen | Sen (Special) | House
2008: President | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25
2004: President

Polling Data

Gillibrand (D)
Farley (R)
Final Results------66.533.5Gillibrand +33.0
SienaSiena10/28 - 11/1641 LV3.95835Gillibrand +23
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac10/10 - 10/16852 LV4.45833Gillibrand +25
SienaSiena9/20 - 9/27701 LV3.96129Gillibrand +32
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac7/12 - 7/16934 RV4.15730Gillibrand +27
SienaSiena6/4 - 6/7745 LV3.76128Gillibrand +33
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac4/26 - 5/11076 RV3.75823Gillibrand +35
SienaSiena4/8 - 4/12692 RV4.35827Gillibrand +31
SienaSiena3/11 - 3/16772 RV4.06024Gillibrand +36

Race Analysis

Since the founding of the Republican Party in the 1850s, New York politics was divided between Republican upstate and Democratic New York City.  The growth of the suburbs and the movement of the white working class toward the party of Eisenhower moved the balance toward the Republicans for a while.  But as the suburbs turned back toward the Democrats in the 1990s and 2000s, the state likewise became solidly Democratic.

This shift came as a result of President Clinton's policies, and benefited one Hillary Rodham Clinton.  She won a seat in the Senate in 2000, and followed it up with a resounding victory in 2006.  After Hillary became President Obama's secretary of state in 2009, Gov. David Paterson appointed Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat.

Although some polls showed a close race, Gillibrand ended up winning a solid 25-point victory over former Rep. Joe DioGuardi to fill out the remainder of Clinton's term.  Although the incumbent's voting record in the House had been moderate, it has been more liberal in the Senate.  Gillibrand won a full term easily in 2012, and is not expected to face a stronger challenge in 2018.  The real question for Gillibrand is whether her anticipated victory is followed by a run for the White House.