Polls

New Jersey Senate - Hugin vs. Menendez

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Candidates

Robert Menendez

Robert Menendez (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Bob Hugin

Bob Hugin (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Jersey Snapshot

RCP Average: Menendez +8.0
RCP Ranking:
 Leans Dem
Key 2018 Races: 
SenateNJ-2NJ-3NJ-5NJ-7NJ-11

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2017: Governor
2016:
 PresidentNJ-5
2014:
 Senate
2013
Governor | Senate (Special)
2012President | NJ-3 | NJ-7
2010: NJ-3 | NJ-6 | NJ-12
2009: Governor
2008: President | Senate | NJ-3 | NJ-7 
2006: Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Menendez (D)
Hugin (R)
Spread
RCP Average9/26 - 10/16----48.040.0Menendez +8.0
MonmouthMonmouth10/11 - 10/15527 LV4.34940Menendez +9
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac10/10 - 10/16873 LV4.35144Menendez +7
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov10/2 - 10/5845 LV--4939Menendez +10
Fairleigh DickinsonFDU9/26 - 9/30508 LV4.34337Menendez +6

All New Jersey Senate - Hugin vs. Menendez Polling Data





Race Analysis

9/13/18 -- This race is surprisingly close, though perhaps not given Robert Menendez’s ethical troubles.  Nevertheless, the last time Menendez looked as though he might be in trouble, the national environment ended up saving him.  And the last time a New Jersey senator looked like he was in trouble, the state Supreme Court saved him.  Menendez is still very much the favorite over Bob Hugin.

----------Race Preview----------

To the casual observer, New Jersey appears to be solidly Democratic. Yet this overlooks the nuances of state politics. With a handful of exceptions, New Jersey has actually voted within a few points of the national average in presidential elections over the past 100 years. However, its lean is Democratic -- and rather consistently so over the past few years. Republicans rarely get blown out of the water here, but neither do they typically eclipse the 50 percent mark.

That seems to be the scenario unfolding this cycle. Senator Bob Menendez is theoretically vulnerable, having survived a criminal trial after the jury failed to return a verdict.  But Republicans haven’t found a candidate so far, and given the state’s leanings and the national environment, it seems unlikely that a real challenge to Menendez will surface.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Menendez (D)
Hugin (R)
Spread
RCP Average9/26 - 10/16----48.040.0Menendez +8.0
MonmouthMonmouth10/11 - 10/15527 LV4.34940Menendez +9
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac10/10 - 10/16873 LV4.35144Menendez +7
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov10/2 - 10/5845 LV--4939Menendez +10
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac9/25 - 10/21058 LV4.15342Menendez +11
Fairleigh DickinsonFDU9/26 - 9/30508 LV4.34337Menendez +6
Stockton University*Stockton*9/19 - 9/27531 LV4.34543Menendez +2
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac8/15 - 8/20908 RV4.64337Menendez +6
GravisGravis7/6 - 7/10563 LV4.14341Menendez +2
Fairleigh DickinsonFDU5/16 - 5/21856 RV3.52824Menendez +4
MonmouthMonmouth4/6 - 4/10632 RV3.95332Menendez +21
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac3/8 - 3/121052 RV4.24932Menendez +17