Polls

Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill

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Candidates

Josh Hawley

Josh Hawley (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Claire McCaskill

Claire McCaskill (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Missouri Snapshot

RCP Average: Hawley +0.6
RCP Ranking
Toss Up

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: President | SenateGovernor
2012
: President | Governor
2010
: Senate | MO-3 | MO-4 | MO-5
2008: President | Gov | MO-6 | MO-9
2006: Senate
2004: President | Sen | Gov | MO-5 | MO-6

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Hawley (R)
McCaskill (D)
Spread
Final Results------51.545.5Hawley +6.0
RCP Average10/27 - 11/4----46.846.2Hawley +0.6
EmersonEmerson11/1 - 11/3732 LV3.84946Hawley +3
HarrisXHarrisX10/29 - 11/41400 LV--4545Tie
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar10/29 - 11/41791 LV2.34844Hawley +4
Missouri Scout*Missouri Scout*11/1 - 11/21424 LV2.64747Tie
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist10/30 - 11/1600 LV5.24750McCaskill +3
FOX NewsFOX News10/27 - 10/30741 LV3.54545Tie

All Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill
Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill
46.8
Hawley (R)+0.6
46.2
McCaskill (D)
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Race Analysis

9/13/18 -- This race has lived up to its billing as one of the closest in the country. Neither Josh Hawley nor Claire McCaskill has had a lead of more than four points in a single poll for the entire year, placing this race well within the margin of error.  The undecided voters are likely Trump supporters, but it is hard to say which way they’ll go in this volatile election.

----------Race Preview----------

The state of Missouri can be divided into five basic political divisions. The Democratic base is in central Kansas City and St. Louis.  Republicans run strong in the rural southwest, which has long been Republican, as well as in the band of counties stretching up the Missouri River from St. Louis to Kansas City, which were settled by Germans in the 1800s. The fourth division is found in the Republican-tilting suburbs, while the fifth division is basically the rest of the state, which is essentially a salient of the South jutting into the heart of the state. Democrats' successes are normally dictated by how well they run in these latter two areas.

The fifth division historically voted Democrat, and kept the state in the Democratic column. But in the 1970s, three Republicans remade the state's map: John Danforth, John Ashcroft and Kit Bond.  In 1970 Bond was elected the first Republican state auditor in 40 years.  He was elected governor two years later, and Ashcroft succeeded him as auditor.  Six years later Ashcroft succeeded Danforth as attorney general, who had likewise been the first Republican elected to the position since the Great Depression.  Both Danforth and Bond would go on to be United States senators.  Ashcroft, once again following Danforth, won the latter's Senate seat after his retirement in 1994. 

The seat has since been subject to wild swings.  Ashcroft was engaged in a tight battle with Gov. Mel Carnahan in 2000 when the governor was killed in a plane crash.  Carnahan was elected posthumously, and his widow was appointed to his seat.  She was defeated by Republican Jim Talent in 2002, who in turn lost to Claire McCaskill in 2006.  McCaskill looked on track to lose in 2012, but the GOP nominated Rep. Todd Akin, who later claimed in an interview that a woman could not get pregnant as a result of "legitimate rape." 

This time, McCaskill’s luck may run out.  The state has swung dramatically toward Republicans over the course of the past decade; Barack Obama narrowly lost the state in 2008, while Donald Trump won by twenty points. McCaskill has a solid opponent in Attorney General Josh Hawley.  With that said, if the national environment remains poisonous for Republicans, she may survive another term.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Hawley (R)
McCaskill (D)
Spread
Final Results------51.545.5Hawley +6.0
RCP Average10/27 - 11/4----46.846.2Hawley +0.6
EmersonEmerson11/1 - 11/3732 LV3.84946Hawley +3
HarrisXHarrisX10/29 - 11/41400 LV--4545Tie
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar10/29 - 11/41791 LV2.34844Hawley +4
HarrisXHarrisX10/28 - 11/31400 LV--4546McCaskill +1
Missouri Scout*Missouri Scout*11/1 - 11/21424 LV2.64747Tie
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist10/30 - 11/1600 LV5.24750McCaskill +3
FOX NewsFOX News10/27 - 10/30741 LV3.54545Tie
Missouri Scout*Missouri Scout*10/24 - 10/251376 LV2.64945Hawley +4
Missouri Scout*Missouri Scout*10/17 - 10/181215 LV2.74746Hawley +1
FOX NewsFOX News9/29 - 10/2683 LV3.54646Tie
Missouri Scout*Missouri Scout*9/26 - 9/271555 LV2.54846Hawley +2
CNN*CNN*9/25 - 9/29756 LV4.34447McCaskill +3
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar9/11 - 9/131724 LV2.44744Hawley +3
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov9/10 - 9/14917 LV--4545Tie
FOX NewsFOX News9/8 - 9/11675 LV3.54545Tie
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist8/25 - 8/28568 LV4.84747Tie
Missouri Scout*Missouri Scout*8/8 - 8/91785 LV2.34747Tie
Remington Research (R)Remington (R)7/7 - 7/81034 LV3.24846Hawley +2
Missouri Scout*Missouri Scout*5/9 - 5/10898 LV3.34448McCaskill +4
EmersonEmerson4/26 - 4/29600 LV4.24545Tie
Missouri Scout*Missouri Scout*4/19 - 4/201542 LV2.54448McCaskill +4
Mason-DixonMason-Dixon4/4 - 4/6625 RV4.04445McCaskill +1
GravisGravis3/5 - 3/7931 RV3.24042McCaskill +2
Remington Research (R)Remington (R)1/3 - 1/41122 LV2.94945Hawley +4
Remington Research (R)Remington (R)10/11 - 10/12965 LV3.14845Hawley +3
Remington Research (R)Remington (R)8/16 - 8/18922 LV3.05045Hawley +5
Remington Research (R)Remington (R)7/7 - 7/8928 LV3.15044Hawley +6