Polls

Minnesota Senate Special Election - Housley vs. Smith

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Candidates

Tina Smith

Tina Smith (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Karin Housley

Karin Housley (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Minnesota Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Leans Dem

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: President | MN-2MN-3MN-8
2014:
Governor | Senate | MN-1 | MN-2 | MN-7 | MN-8
2012
President | Senate | MN-6 | MN-8
2010: Governor | MN-1 | MN-6 | MN-7 | MN-8
2008: President | Senate | MN-3 | MN-6 
2006: Senate | Governor | MN-6 
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Smith (D)
Housley (R)
Spread
RCP Average7/15 - 8/11----40.531.5Smith +9.0
EmersonEmerson8/8 - 8/11500 LV4.63228Smith +4
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist7/15 - 7/19876 RV4.04935Smith +14

All Minnesota Senate Special Election - Housley vs. Smith Polling Data





Race Analysis


It is difficult to imagine today, but before the 1940s there was no Democratic Party in Minnesota to speak of.  From the election of Abraham Lincoln through 1948, it had never elected a Democratic senator (though one was appointed for a two-month stint in 1900).  It sent a total of 15 Democrats to Congress during that time.  But the Democratic Party fused with the left-leaning Farmer-Labor Party in 1944 and created a dominant force in state politics.  From 1948 through 1978 the tables were turned: the state elected just one Republican senator.

In the mid-'70s, the DFL began to decline in popularity, and for a time the state had two Republican senators.  Today it is thought of as a swing state, even though it hasn't voted Republican at the presidential level since 1972.

The state's senior senator is Amy Klobuchar, a former Hennepin County (Minneapolis) attorney.  Elected in 2006 by a surprising 21-point margin, she has maintained high levels of popularity despite a voting record that is probably to the left of the state. None of her Republican challengers seem likely to pose much of a threat to her, especially in the present environment.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Smith (D)
Housley (R)
Spread
RCP Average7/15 - 8/11----40.531.5Smith +9.0
EmersonEmerson8/8 - 8/11500 LV4.63228Smith +4
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist7/15 - 7/19876 RV4.04935Smith +14