Polls

Michigan Senate - James vs. Stabenow

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Republican PrimaryAugust 7th, 2018

Candidates

Debbie Stabenow

Debbie Stabenow (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

John James

John James (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Michigan Snapshot

RCP Average: Stabenow +8.3
RCP Ranking: 
Leans Dem
Key 2018 Races:
 GovernorMI-6MI-7MI-8MI-11

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: President | MI-1MI-7
2014: 
Governor | SenateMI-1 | MI-4 | MI-6 | MI-7 | MI-8 | MI-11
2012
President | SenateMI-1 | MI-3 | MI-11
2010Governor | MI-1 | MI-7 | MI-9 | MI-15
2008: President | MI-7 | MI-9
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Stabenow (D)
James (R)
Spread
Final Results------52.245.8Stabenow +6.4
RCP Average10/29 - 11/5----52.043.7Stabenow +8.3
Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research11/5 - 11/5827 LV3.44946Stabenow +3
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar11/2 - 11/51817 LV2.35344Stabenow +9
GravisGravis10/29 - 10/30764 LV3.65441Stabenow +13

All Michigan Senate - James vs. Stabenow Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Michigan Senate - James vs. Stabenow
Michigan Senate - James vs. Stabenow
52.0
Stabenow (D)+8.3
43.7
James (R)
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Race Analysis

10/26/2018 -- Two polls have shown Debbie Stabenow with single-digit leads, though she is still at around 50 percent of the vote.  This seems like a potential late-breaking race.

9/13/18 -- Some Republicans were excited about the candidacy of John James, but so far there is little evidence that he poses a threat to Debbie Stabenow, who holds double-digit leads and is at about 50 percent in the polls.

----------Race Preview----------

For much of its history, Michigan was one of the most Republican states in the union.  In 1920, it gave Democrat John Cox 22 percent of the vote; in 1924 it gave John W. Davis 13 percent; and in 1928 it gave Al Smith 29 percent of the vote.  But in the wake of the sit-down strikes of the 1930s and the high levels of unionization that followed, Michigan quickly became competitive. The state became split between "outstate" Michigan, which retained its Republican heritage, and Detroit, which was solidly Democratic. When the Detroit suburbs, like most northern suburbs, swung toward the Democrats in the 1990s, they took the state with them.  Michigan has been reliably Democratic at the presidential level since the 1992 elections.

But in 2010, Michigan swung toward the Republicans.  Political novice Rick Snyder defeated Democrat Virg Bernero for governor by a stunning 19-point margin, while Republicans racked up impressive majorities in the state legislature.  Snyder was re-elected in 2014, and the Republican hold on the legislature continues.

Against this background, one would suspect that Democrat Debbie Stabenow would draw a quality challenger, especially after Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the state since 1988.  Stabenow has never been the most popular senator in the state; she narrowly defeated Republican Spencer Abraham in the generally good Democratic year of 2000, and won by 15 and 20 points against underwhelming Republicans in the good Democratic years of 2006 and 2012. But Republicans have yet to come up with a solid challenger, and given the national environment, this seat looks like it will stay in Democratic hands.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Stabenow (D)
James (R)
Spread
Final Results------52.245.8Stabenow +6.4
RCP Average10/29 - 11/5----52.043.7Stabenow +8.3
Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research11/5 - 11/5827 LV3.44946Stabenow +3
Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research11/4 - 11/4701 LV3.75346Stabenow +7
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar11/2 - 11/51817 LV2.35344Stabenow +9
GravisGravis10/29 - 10/30764 LV3.65441Stabenow +13
Detroit News/WDIV-TV*Detroit News*10/25 - 10/27600 LV4.05336Stabenow +17
Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research10/25 - 10/25400 LV5.05246Stabenow +6
EmersonEmerson10/24 - 10/26822 LV3.65243Stabenow +9
Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght10/22 - 10/24800 LV3.05343Stabenow +10
EPIC-MRAEPIC-MRA10/18 - 10/23600 LV4.04942Stabenow +7
MRGMRG10/14 - 10/18600 LV4.05337Stabenow +16
Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research9/30 - 10/7654 LV3.85142Stabenow +9
Detroit News/WDIV-TVDetroit News9/30 - 10/2600 LV4.05335Stabenow +18
EPIC-MRAEPIC-MRA9/21 - 9/25600 LV4.05633Stabenow +23
Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research9/12 - 9/131009 LV3.05441Stabenow +13
Target-Insyght/MIRSTarget-Insyght/MIRS9/10 - 9/14800 LV3.05540Stabenow +15
Detroit News/WDIV-TVDetroit News9/5 - 9/7600 LV4.05633Stabenow +23
GravisGravis8/14 - 8/16647 LV3.95135Stabenow +16
EmersonEmerson7/19 - 7/21202 LV7.34729Stabenow +18
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist7/15 - 7/19886 RV3.95537Stabenow +18
Detroit News/WDIV-TVDetroit News1/16 - 1/19600 LV4.05130Stabenow +21