RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Connecticut Senate - Corey vs. Murphy


Connecticut Senate - Corey vs. Murphy



Chris Murphy

Chris Murphy (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Matthew Corey

Matthew Corey (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Connecticut Senate

RCP Ranking: Safe Dem
Key 2018 Races:

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: President | Senate
: Governor | CT-5
: President | CT-4 | CT-5
: Gov | Sen | CT-1 | CT-2 | CT-4 | CT-5
2008: President | CT-4
2006: Governor | Senate | CT-2 | CT-4 | CT-5
2004: President | Senate | CT-2 | CT-4

Polling Data

Murphy (D)
Corey (R)
Final Results------59.439.5Murphy +19.9
GravisGravis10/30 - 11/1681 LV3.85835Murphy +23
EmersonEmerson10/27 - 10/29780 LV3.75535Murphy +20
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac10/22 - 10/281201 LV4.05641Murphy +15
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac10/3 - 10/8767 LV5.05742Murphy +15
GravisGravis8/24 - 8/27606 LV4.05437Murphy +17
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac8/16 - 8/211029 RV3.95931Murphy +28

Race Analysis

After admission to the union, Connecticut adhered staunchly to the Federalist Party and its progeny. Indeed, Connecticut was electing Federalists as late as 1818, much longer than anywhere else in the country. Whether it was Federalists, Adams Democrats, Anti-Jacksonian Democrats, Whigs or Republicans, the people of Connecticut routinely supported whatever option was not the Democratic Party. 

But heavy immigration from Catholic countries in Europe began to erode the Congregationalist base of Federalist/Whig/Republican politics in Connecticut. The Civil War helped stem that tide, as did the affiliation of Italians with Republicans and the radicalization of the Democrats after the 1894 elections. But the difference in the congressional delegation from 1908 to 1912 tells the entire tale of the emerging shift in Connecticut politics. In 1908, the state had five Republican congressmen with the last names Henry, Sperry, Higgins, Hill and Tilson; in 1912 there were five Democrats named Lonergan, Mahan, Reilly, Donovan and Kennedy.

Democrats continued winning with increasing frequency throughout the 1900s, but it really was not until the election of 1958 that they established dominance in the state. While Connecticut veered somewhat back to the Republicans in the 1970s and '80s, and while there are still sections where the right type of Republican can do quite well in, the state today has to be regarded as solidly Democratic.  So Democratic, in fact, that Joe Lieberman, with a near-perfect record from Americans for Democratic Action, found himself to the right of the Connecticut Democratic Party in 2006 and lost his party's nomination that year. (He ran in the general election as an independent, and won.)

He opted not to stand for re-election in 2012, and Democrat Chris Murphy won the seat against Republican Linda McMahon.  He lacks serious opposition this cycle.