Polls

Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema

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Republican PrimaryAugust 28th, 2018

Candidates

Kyrsten Sinema

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Martha McSally

Martha McSally (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Arizona Snapshot

RCP Average: Sinema +1.5
RCP Ranking:
 Toss Up
Key 2018 Races:
 GovernorAZ-1AZ-2AZ-8AZ-9

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: PresidentSenateAZ-1 | AZ-2
2014
: Governor | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9
2012
President | Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9
2010Gov | Sen | AZ-1 | AZ-3 | AZ-5 | AZ-7 | AZ-8
2008: President | AZ-1 | AZ-3 
2006: Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-5 | AZ-8 
2004: President | AZ-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Sinema (D)
McSally (R)
Spread
RCP Average9/5 - 9/15----47.846.3Sinema +1.5
CNNCNN9/11 - 9/15761 LV4.35043Sinema +7
FOX NewsFOX News9/8 - 9/11710 LV3.54744Sinema +3
ABC 15/OH Predictive InsightsABC 159/5 - 9/6597 LV4.04649McSally +3
GravisGravis9/5 - 9/7882 LV5.34849McSally +1

All Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema Polling Data





Race Analysis

9/13/18 -- Over the summer, the developing conventional wisdom held that Kyrsten Sinema was emerging as the favorite for the race.  But Martha McSally seems to have consolidated the Republican vote rather quickly after winning her primary election.  Even though the national environment is unfavorable to Republicans, Arizona is still, at its core, a Republican-leaning state.  This is a tight race, with both parties brushing up against the threshold they need to win..

----------Race Preview----------

When Willis Haviland Carrier was granted Patent No. 808897 for his "Apparatus for Treating Air," Arizona was an overwhelmingly rural stretch of desert in the American Southwest. Its few residents traced their roots to the Confederacy (north/south migration in the United States would not begin in earnest until the 1920s), and it was therefore overwhelmingly Democratic. But as air conditioning made desert life palatable, increasing numbers of migrants from the Midwest to Southern California decided to drop their bags in Phoenix. And, gradually, the political demography of Arizona began to change. 


Arizona experienced a political earthquake in 1952, when John Rhodes defeated 16-year incumbent Democrat John Murdock by eight points in the Maricopa County-based 1st Congressional District, while Phoenix department store owner Barry Goldwater defeated Senate Majority Leader Ernest McFarland by two points statewide. By the time Goldwater resigned that Senate seat in 1964 to claim his party's presidential nod, the Republicans were the majority party in the state.

Arizona has inched back toward the Democratic Party, as suburban areas nationally have trended Democratic and as Hispanics increase their vote share in the state. But it still leans Republican overall, as the GOP has maintained majorities in the state legislature for most of the past three decades. Nevertheless, Democrats find themselves with their best opportunity to win a Senate seat in years. The state’s junior senator, Jeff Flake, found himself crosswise with the state’s Republican base due to his continued loud opposition to Donald Trump. At the same time, his steadfastly conservative voting pattern failed to earn him sympathy from the state’s Democrats. He found himself trailing his likely Democratic opponent, Representative Kyrsten Sinema, but also found himself behind former state senator and conservative firebrand Kelli Ward.

Flake retired, and the GOP establishment initially struggled to find a replacement candidate to take on Ward in the primary. That changed when Martha McSally, the representative for the second district, opted to run for the seat. The entrance of controversial Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio has the potential to split the populist vote, and perhaps open the door for McSally to win. The general election polling to date has shown a competitive race.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Sinema (D)
McSally (R)
Spread
RCP Average9/5 - 9/15----47.846.3Sinema +1.5
CNNCNN9/11 - 9/15761 LV4.35043Sinema +7
FOX NewsFOX News9/8 - 9/11710 LV3.54744Sinema +3
ABC 15/OH Predictive InsightsABC 159/5 - 9/6597 LV4.04649McSally +3
GravisGravis9/5 - 9/7882 LV5.34849McSally +1
ABC 15/OH Predictive InsightsABC 157/23 - 7/25600 LV4.04844Sinema +4
GravisGravis6/27 - 7/2925 LV3.24339Sinema +4
EmersonEmerson6/21 - 6/22650 RV4.04032Sinema +8
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist6/17 - 6/21839 RV4.54938Sinema +11
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov6/19 - 6/22869 LV--4537Sinema +8
ABC 15/OH Predictive InsightsABC 154/10 - 4/11600 LV4.04842Sinema +6
OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights11/9 - 11/9600 LV4.04645Sinema +1