Polls

Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema

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3-Way Race: McSally vs. Sinema vs. Green | Republican PrimaryAugust 28th, 2018

Candidates

Martha McSally

Martha McSally (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Kyrsten Sinema

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Arizona Snapshot

RCP Average: McSally +1.0
RCP Ranking:
 Toss Up
Key 2018 Races:
 GovernorAZ-1AZ-2AZ-8AZ-9

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: PresidentSenateAZ-1 | AZ-2
2014
: Governor | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9
2012
President | Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9
2010Gov | Sen | AZ-1 | AZ-3 | AZ-5 | AZ-7 | AZ-8
2008: President | AZ-1 | AZ-3 
2006: Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-5 | AZ-8 
2004: President | AZ-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
McSally (R)
Sinema (D)
Spread
Final Results------48.049.7Sinema +1.7
RCP Average10/24 - 11/5----47.546.5McSally +1.0
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar11/4 - 11/51217 LV2.84745McSally +2
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights*ABC 15*11/2 - 11/3631 LV4.04948McSally +1
HarrisXHarrisX10/29 - 11/41400 LV2.64845McSally +3
Emerson*Emerson*11/1 - 11/3758 LV3.74849Sinema +1
GravisGravis10/24 - 11/21165 LV2.94746McSally +1
FOX NewsFOX News10/27 - 10/29643 LV3.54646Tie

All Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema
47.5
McSally (R)+1.0
46.5
Sinema (D)
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Race Analysis

10/26/18 -- The comments from Kyrsten Sinema suggesting that Arizona was the “meth lab of democracy” and that she didn’t care whether a libertarian interviewer joined the Taliban certainly haven’t helped her prospects in this red-leaning state, but there hasn’t been enough polling to assess how much they’ve hurt, if at all.  For now, Martha McSally has a slight lead in the polls.

10/6/18 -- Kyrsten Sinema has opened up a narrow lead over Martha McSally.  There are still a lot of undecideds, and Arizona is a fairly Republican state, but the president is not terribly popular here.  This is likely to go down to the wire.

9/13/18 -- Over the summer, the developing conventional wisdom held that Kyrsten Sinema was emerging as the favorite for the race.  But Martha McSally seems to have consolidated the Republican vote rather quickly after winning her primary election.  Even though the national environment is unfavorable to Republicans, Arizona is still, at its core, a Republican-leaning state.  This is a tight race, with both parties brushing up against the threshold they need to win..

----------Race Preview----------

When Willis Haviland Carrier was granted Patent No. 808897 for his "Apparatus for Treating Air," Arizona was an overwhelmingly rural stretch of desert in the American Southwest. Its few residents traced their roots to the Confederacy (north/south migration in the United States would not begin in earnest until the 1920s), and it was therefore overwhelmingly Democratic. But as air conditioning made desert life palatable, increasing numbers of migrants from the Midwest to Southern California decided to drop their bags in Phoenix. And, gradually, the political demography of Arizona began to change. 


Arizona experienced a political earthquake in 1952, when John Rhodes defeated 16-year incumbent Democrat John Murdock by eight points in the Maricopa County-based 1st Congressional District, while Phoenix department store owner Barry Goldwater defeated Senate Majority Leader Ernest McFarland by two points statewide. By the time Goldwater resigned that Senate seat in 1964 to claim his party's presidential nod, the Republicans were the majority party in the state.

Arizona has inched back toward the Democratic Party, as suburban areas nationally have trended Democratic and as Hispanics increase their vote share in the state. But it still leans Republican overall, as the GOP has maintained majorities in the state legislature for most of the past three decades. Nevertheless, Democrats find themselves with their best opportunity to win a Senate seat in years. The state’s junior senator, Jeff Flake, found himself crosswise with the state’s Republican base due to his continued loud opposition to Donald Trump. At the same time, his steadfastly conservative voting pattern failed to earn him sympathy from the state’s Democrats. He found himself trailing his likely Democratic opponent, Representative Kyrsten Sinema, but also found himself behind former state senator and conservative firebrand Kelli Ward.

Flake retired, and the GOP establishment initially struggled to find a replacement candidate to take on Ward in the primary. That changed when Martha McSally, the representative for the second district, opted to run for the seat. The entrance of controversial Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio has the potential to split the populist vote, and perhaps open the door for McSally to win. The general election polling to date has shown a competitive race.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
McSally (R)
Sinema (D)
Spread
Final Results------48.049.7Sinema +1.7
RCP Average10/24 - 11/5----47.546.5McSally +1.0
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar11/4 - 11/51217 LV2.84745McSally +2
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights*ABC 15*11/2 - 11/3631 LV4.04948McSally +1
HarrisXHarrisX10/29 - 11/41400 LV2.64845McSally +3
Emerson*Emerson*11/1 - 11/3758 LV3.74849Sinema +1
HarrisXHarrisX10/28 - 11/31400 LV2.64943McSally +6
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar10/30 - 11/12166 LV2.14750Sinema +3
GravisGravis10/24 - 11/21165 LV2.94746McSally +1
FOX NewsFOX News10/27 - 10/29643 LV3.54646Tie
CNNCNN10/24 - 10/29702 LV4.44751Sinema +4
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist10/23 - 10/27506 LV5.44450Sinema +6
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov10/23 - 10/26972 LV4.14447Sinema +3
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights*ABC 15*10/22 - 10/23600 LV4.05245McSally +7
NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena10/15 - 10/19606 LV4.24846McSally +2
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov10/2 - 10/5898 LV--4447Sinema +3
ABC 15/OH Predictive InsightsABC 1510/1 - 10/2600 LV4.04741McSally +6
FOX NewsFOX News9/29 - 10/2716 LV3.54547Sinema +2
Suffolk*Suffolk*9/27 - 9/30500 LV4.44245Sinema +3
Emerson*Emerson*9/19 - 9/21650 RV4.43945Sinema +6
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist9/16 - 9/20564 LV4.74548Sinema +3
CNNCNN9/11 - 9/15761 LV4.34350Sinema +7
FOX NewsFOX News9/8 - 9/11710 LV3.54447Sinema +3
ABC 15/OH Predictive InsightsABC 159/5 - 9/6597 LV4.04946McSally +3
GravisGravis9/5 - 9/7882 LV5.34948McSally +1
ABC 15/OH Predictive InsightsABC 157/23 - 7/25600 LV4.04448Sinema +4
GravisGravis6/27 - 7/2925 LV3.23943Sinema +4
EmersonEmerson6/21 - 6/22650 RV4.03240Sinema +8
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist6/17 - 6/21839 RV4.53849Sinema +11
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov6/19 - 6/22869 LV--3745Sinema +8
ABC 15/OH Predictive InsightsABC 154/10 - 4/11600 LV4.04248Sinema +6
OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights11/9 - 11/9600 LV4.04546Sinema +1