RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Arkansas 2nd District - Hill vs. Tucker



Arkansas 2nd District - Hill vs. Tucker


French Hill

French Hill (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Clarke Tucker

Clarke Tucker (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Arkansas Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Likely GOP
Presidential Results:
 Trump +10.7 | Romney +11.8
Key 2018 Races:
 Governor | AR-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: President | Senate
: Governor | AR-2 | AR-4
: President
2010Governor | SenateAR-1 | AR-2 | AR-4
2008: President
2006: Governor | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-3 | AR-4
2004: President | Senate | AR-2

Polling Data

Hill (R)
Tucker (D)
Final Results------52.145.8Hill +6.3
Talk Business/Hendrix College*Talk Business/Hendrix College*10/17 - 10/18590 LV4.05240Hill +12

Race Analysis

Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District is based around Little Rock and its suburbs. The only truly urban area of the state, it was also the first area to move toward the Republicans (outside of the historically Republican Ozark Mountains). It elected a Republican from 1978 through 1984, and nearly did so again in 1996, even as Bill Clinton was carrying the district handily.

From 1996 through 2010, the district was represented by Democrat Vic Snyder. Snyder compiled a fairly liberal voting record, and rarely received more than 60 percent of the vote. On the heels of his support for cap-and-trade legislation and health care reform, Public Policy Polling showed Snyder leading former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin by only a point, 44 percent-43 percent. Snyder promptly retired, and Griffin won the seat handily.

But Griffin’s tenure in Congress was brief: He announced his retirement after only two terms (he subsequently became the party’s nominee for lieutenant governor, winning the post in 2014).  Griffin was succeeded by J. French Hill, who won the seat by eight points against a credible Democratic opponent in 2014, and by a more substantial 22-point margin in 2016.

Hill’s opponent this year, state Rep. Clarke Tucker, is more than credible, and has raised just short of a million dollars. Hill should have the advantage, but if the environment turns south for the GOP, he could come up short.