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Pennsylvania Senate - Toomey vs. McGinty
RCP Senate Map | Changes in Senate Ratings | Map With No Toss Ups | Race Changes w/No Toss Ups | Latest Polls
Pennsylvania Snapshot
RCP Average: McGinty +2.0
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2016 Key Races: President 4-Way, 2-Way | PA-6 | PA-8
----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2014: PA-6 | PA-8
2012: President | Senate | PA-6 | PA-8 | PA-12
2010: Governor | Senate | House
2008: President | PA-3 | PA-10 | PA-11
2006: Senate | Governor | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | McGinty (D) | Toomey (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 47.3 | 48.9 | Toomey +1.6 |
| RCP Average | 10/29 - 11/4 | -- | -- | 45.0 | 43.0 | McGinty +2.0 |
| Morning CallMorning Call | 10/30 - 11/4 | 405 LV | 5.5 | 42 | 43 | Toomey +1 |
| Harper (R)*Harper (R)* | 11/2 - 11/3 | 504 LV | 4.4 | 44 | 44 | Tie |
| GravisGravis | 11/1 - 11/2 | 1016 RV | 3.1 | 45 | 43 | McGinty +2 |
| SusquehannaSusquehanna | 10/31 - 11/1 | 681 LV | 3.8 | 47 | 41 | McGinty +6 |
| MonmouthMonmouth | 10/29 - 11/1 | 403 LV | 4.9 | 47 | 44 | McGinty +3 |
RCP Poll Average
Pennsylvania Senate - Toomey vs. McGinty
Pennsylvania Senate - Toomey vs. McGinty
45.0 McGinty (D)+2.0 |
43.0 Toomey (R) |
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Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | McGinty (D) | Toomey (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 47.3 | 48.9 | Toomey +1.6 |
| RCP Average | 10/29 - 11/4 | -- | -- | 45.0 | 43.0 | McGinty +2.0 |
| Morning CallMorning Call | 10/30 - 11/4 | 405 LV | 5.5 | 42 | 43 | Toomey +1 |
| Harper (R)*Harper (R)* | 11/2 - 11/3 | 504 LV | 4.4 | 44 | 44 | Tie |
| GravisGravis | 11/1 - 11/2 | 1016 RV | 3.1 | 45 | 43 | McGinty +2 |
| SusquehannaSusquehanna | 10/31 - 11/1 | 681 LV | 3.8 | 47 | 41 | McGinty +6 |
| MonmouthMonmouth | 10/29 - 11/1 | 403 LV | 4.9 | 47 | 44 | McGinty +3 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 10/27 - 11/1 | 612 LV | 4.0 | 48 | 47 | McGinty +1 |
| CNN/ORCCNN/ORC | 10/27 - 11/1 | 799 LV | 3.5 | 51 | 46 | McGinty +5 |
| Franklin & Marshall*F&M* | 10/26 - 10/30 | 652 LV | 5.1 | 47 | 35 | McGinty +12 |
| GravisGravis | 10/25 - 10/30 | 3217 RV | 1.7 | 45 | 41 | McGinty +4 |
| CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov | 10/26 - 10/28 | 1091 LV | 3.7 | 44 | 41 | McGinty +3 |
| EmersonEmerson | 10/25 - 10/26 | 550 LV | 4.1 | 45 | 43 | McGinty +2 |
| NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena | 10/23 - 10/25 | 824 LV | 3.4 | 47 | 44 | McGinty +3 |
| Morning CallMorning Call | 10/20 - 10/26 | 420 LV | 5.5 | 41 | 41 | Tie |
| EmersonEmerson | 10/17 - 10/19 | 800 LV | 3.4 | 43 | 46 | Toomey +3 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 10/10 - 10/16 | 660 LV | 3.8 | 45 | 49 | Toomey +4 |
| BloombergBloomberg | 10/7 - 10/11 | 806 LV | 3.5 | 47 | 45 | McGinty +2 |
| Susquehanna*Susquehanna* | 10/4 - 10/9 | 764 LV | 3.5 | 38 | 42 | Toomey +4 |
| CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov | 10/5 - 10/7 | 997 LV | 4.2 | 42 | 42 | Tie |
| NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ | 10/3 - 10/6 | 709 LV | 3.7 | 48 | 44 | McGinty +4 |
| Monmouth*Monmouth* | 9/30 - 10/3 | 402 LV | 4.9 | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| Franklin & Marshall*F&M* | 9/28 - 10/2 | 496 LV | 6.1 | 41 | 35 | McGinty +6 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 9/27 - 10/2 | 535 LV | 4.2 | 42 | 50 | Toomey +8 |
| GravisGravis | 9/23 - 9/23 | 949 LV | 3.2 | 43 | 39 | McGinty +4 |
| CNN/ORCCNN/ORC | 9/20 - 9/25 | 771 LV | 3.5 | 49 | 46 | McGinty +3 |
| Harper (R)*Harper (R)* | 9/21 - 9/22 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 42 | 42 | Tie |
| Morning CallMorning Call | 9/19 - 9/23 | 486 LV | 5.0 | 40 | 41 | Toomey +1 |
| MercyhurstMercyhurst | 9/12 - 9/23 | 420 LV | 4.8 | 42 | 43 | Toomey +1 |
| Morning CallMorning Call | 9/12 - 9/16 | 486 LV | 5.0 | 41 | 38 | McGinty +3 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 8/31 - 9/7 | 778 LV | 3.5 | 45 | 46 | Toomey +1 |
| CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov | 8/30 - 9/2 | 1091 LV | 4.1 | 39 | 39 | Tie |
| Franklin & MarshallF&M | 8/25 - 8/29 | 496 LV | 5.6 | 43 | 38 | McGinty +5 |
| Monmouth*Monmouth* | 8/26 - 8/29 | 402 LV | 4.9 | 45 | 41 | McGinty +4 |
| EmersonEmerson | 8/25 - 8/28 | 800 LV | 3.4 | 39 | 46 | Toomey +7 |
| NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ | 8/3 - 8/7 | 834 RV | 3.4 | 48 | 44 | McGinty +4 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 7/30 - 8/7 | 815 RV | 3.4 | 47 | 44 | McGinty +3 |
| SusquehannaSusquehanna | 7/31 - 8/4 | 772 LV | 3.5 | 42 | 40 | McGinty +2 |
| Franklin & MarshallF&M | 7/29 - 7/29 | 389 LV | 6.3 | 39 | 38 | McGinty +1 |
| PPP (D)PPP (D) | 7/29 - 7/31 | 1505 LV | 2.5 | 41 | 42 | Toomey +1 |
| Suffolk UniversitySuffolk | 7/25 - 7/27 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 43 | 36 | McGinty +7 |
| NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ | 7/5 - 7/10 | 829 RV | 3.4 | 47 | 44 | McGinty +3 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 6/30 - 7/11 | 982 RV | 3.1 | 39 | 49 | Toomey +10 |
| PPP (D)*PPP (D)* | 6/22 - 6/23 | 980 RV | 3.1 | 39 | 40 | Toomey +1 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 6/8 - 6/19 | 950 RV | 3.2 | 40 | 49 | Toomey +9 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 4/27 - 5/8 | 1077 RV | 3.0 | 44 | 45 | Toomey +1 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 3/30 - 4/4 | 1737 RV | 2.4 | 38 | 47 | Toomey +9 |
| Mercyhurst UniversityMercyhurst University | 3/16 - 3/18 | 421 RV | 4.8 | 34 | 47 | Toomey +13 |
| PPP (D)PPP (D) | 10/8 - 10/11 | 1012 RV | 3.1 | 36 | 43 | Toomey +7 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 9/25 - 10/5 | 1049 RV | 3.0 | 31 | 51 | Toomey +20 |
| Harper (R)Harper (R) | 9/9 - 9/10 | 700 LV | 3.7 | 34 | 48 | Toomey +14 |
| Franklin & MarshallF&M | 8/17 - 8/24 | 605 RV | 3.9 | 28 | 35 | Toomey +7 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 8/7 - 8/18 | 1085 RV | 3.0 | 32 | 48 | Toomey +16 |
| PPP (D)PPP (D) | 5/30 - 6/1 | 835 RV | 3.4 | 38 | 42 | Toomey +4 |
