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Texas Senate - Cornyn vs. Alameel

Candidates

David Alameel

David Alameel (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

John Cornyn

John Cornyn (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Texas Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe GOP
2014 Key RacesGovernor | TX-23 | TX-34

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | TX-14 | TX-23
2010Gov | TX-15 | TX-17 | TX-23 | TX-25 | TX-27
2008: President | Senate | TX-22
2006: Governor | Senate | TX-22
2004: President | TX-19 | TX-32

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEAlameel (D)Cornyn (R)Spread
Final Results------34.461.6Cornyn +27.2
RCP Average9/11 - 10/23----31.353.0Cornyn +21.7
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/233987 LV3.03557Cornyn +22
UT/Texas Tribune*10/10 - 10/19866 LV3.33157Cornyn +26
Rasmussen Reports10/1 - 10/2840 LV3.52950Cornyn +21
Texas Lyceum*9/11 - 9/25666 LV3.83048Cornyn +18

All Texas Senate - Cornyn vs. Alameel Polling Data

Race Analysis

The rise of the Republican Party in the Lone Star State is a fascinating tale of how one party consistently bit off its nose to spite its face. Texas always had a small Republican Party in the panhandle, in the German counties north of San Antonio, and later in the growing suburbs of Dallas and Houston. But the two-party system mostly played out among Democrats. It was divided between conservative Tory Democrats, who plotted to depose Franklin Roosevelt as the Democratic nominee in 1944 and who supported President Eisenhower in the 1950s, and the liberal Democrats.

When LBJ was elected vice president, a conservative Democrat was appointed to replace him. In the ensuing special election, liberal Democrats either stayed home or cast a protest vote for Republican John Tower, whom they figured they could easily defeat down the road. The same dynamic played out in 1966, and by 1972 Tory Democrats were defecting to the Republican Party, while the Republicans' native base in the suburbs continued to grow.

Today the Republicans have controlled the governorship for 20 straight years, and both Senate seats for 21. The Democratic Party still maintains strength, and may even regain majority party standing in the future if immigration continues apace. In the meantime, businessman David Alameel isn’t expected to pose a threat to Sen. John Cornyn, barring a massive shift in the national mood.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEAlameel (D)Cornyn (R)Spread
Final Results------34.461.6Cornyn +27.2
RCP Average9/11 - 10/23----31.353.0Cornyn +21.7
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/233987 LV3.03557Cornyn +22
UT/Texas Tribune*10/10 - 10/19866 LV3.33157Cornyn +26
Rasmussen Reports10/1 - 10/2840 LV3.52950Cornyn +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/14177 LV2.03555Cornyn +20
Texas Lyceum*9/11 - 9/25666 LV3.83048Cornyn +18
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/24189 LV2.03455Cornyn +21
Rasmussen Reports8/4 - 8/5850 LV3.02947Cornyn +18
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV3.73855Cornyn +17
UT/Texas Tribune*5/30 - 6/81200 RV2.82536Cornyn +11
PPP (D)4/10 - 4/13559 RV4.13249Cornyn +17