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Tennessee Senate - Alexander vs. Ball

Candidates

Lamar Alexander

Lamar Alexander (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Gordon Ball

Gordon Ball (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Tennessee Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe GOP
2014 Key Races: Governor

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | SenateTN-4
2010Governor | TN-4 | TN-5 | TN-6 | TN-8
2008: President | Senate
2006: Governor | Senate
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEAlexander (R)Ball (D)Spread
Final Results------61.931.8Alexander +30.1
RCP Average8/11 - 10/23----51.032.5Alexander +18.5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23974 LV5.05533Alexander +22
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/12750 LV4.04732Alexander +15

All Tennessee Senate - Alexander vs. Ball Polling Data

Race Analysis

The Volunteer State was long something of an anomaly in the South. The mountains in the eastern portion of the state had been a bastion of strong Republican support since the Civil War. The GOP therefore maintained a sizable presence in the state. Unlike in the rest of the South, Democratic presidential candidates rarely received more than 55 percent of the vote there, and in good Republican years (like 1920 and 1928) they even lost.

So Tennessee was one of the first states in the South to align with the GOP and was the first to elect two Republican senators. It also occasionally elected Republican governors, even during the Jim Crow era: It did so in 1880, 1910, 1912 and 1920.

In 2002, Sen. Fred Thompson cut his career short. Democrats had hoped that Rep. Bob Clement could claim the seat for their party, but former Gov. Lamar Alexander won easily, 54 percent to 44 percent. They failed to claim another open seat in 2006, a much better Democratic year. Since then, they haven’t put up much of a fight, and Alexander is close to a sure bet for re-election.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEAlexander (R)Ball (D)Spread
Final Results------61.931.8Alexander +30.1
RCP Average8/11 - 10/23----51.032.5Alexander +18.5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23974 LV5.05533Alexander +22
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11007 LV4.05332Alexander +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21056 LV4.04732Alexander +15
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/12750 LV4.04732Alexander +15
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV5.44833Alexander +15
Rasmussen Reports4/29 - 4/30750 LV4.05125Alexander +26