Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Oregon Senate - Wehby vs. Merkley

Candidates

Jeff Merkley

Jeff Merkley (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Monica Wehby

Monica Wehby (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Oregon Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Likely Dem
2014 Key Races: Governor | OR-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President | OR-4
2010Governor | Senate | OR-1 | OR-4 | OR-5
2008: President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEMerkley (D)Wehby (R)Spread
Final Results------55.837.3Merkley +18.5
RCP Average10/16 - 10/27----51.033.7Merkley +17.3
The Oregonian/Elway10/26 - 10/27403 LV5.04930Merkley +19
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/27552 LV4.25332Merkley +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231421 LV4.05139Merkley +12

All Oregon Senate - Wehby vs. Merkley Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Oregon Senate - Wehby vs. Merkley
51.0Merkley (D)+17.3
33.7Wehby (R)
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Race Analysis

10/7/14 -- Wehby just can’t seem to make any headway. With mail-in voting starting soon, it’s hard to see what her path to victory is.

----------Race Preview----------

Oregon had two Republican senators well into the 1990s. Both were anachronisms of sorts, drawn from the Progressive Republican tradition that used to dominate the state’s politics. One, Mark Hatfield, was a pacifistic, pro-life moderate, whose political career spanned four decades in Oregon. The other was Bob Packwood, one of the leading pro-choice legislators in Congress, and one of two Republican senators to vote against Clarence Thomas’s nomination to the Supreme Court.

When Packwood was brought down by a slew of allegations that he had sexually harassed several women, Congressman Ron Wyden faced off against businessman Gordon Smith in a special election to replace him. Wyden won narrowly; Smith later joined Wyden in the Senate when Hatfield retired. Smith was brought down by the 2008 anti-Republican tide, losing to Democrat Jeff Merkley by a surprisingly narrow margin.

Merkley has cut a relatively low profile in the Senate, and for much of this cycle was considered fairly safe. But President Obama’s deteriorating standing nationally has bled into this state, and while Merkley isn’t a top-tier Republican opportunity, the GOP believes it has a chance in the state with physician Monica Wehby. Wehby has been dogged by stories surrounding her legal battles, but she’s also cut some of the better advertisements of the cycle. Obama’s standing can’t improve much more if Republicans are to make this competitive, but for now, it remains a possibility.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEMerkley (D)Wehby (R)Spread
Final Results------55.837.3Merkley +18.5
RCP Average10/16 - 10/27----51.033.7Merkley +17.3
The Oregonian/Elway10/26 - 10/27403 LV5.04930Merkley +19
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/27552 LV4.25332Merkley +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231421 LV4.05139Merkley +12
SurveyUSA10/16 - 10/19561 LV4.25332Merkley +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11508 LV3.05239Merkley +13
SurveyUSA9/22 - 9/24568 LV4.25232Merkley +20
The Polling Company (R)*9/9 - 9/11600 LV4.04234Merkley +8
Rasmussen Reports9/2 - 9/3750 LV4.04835Merkley +13
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21541 LV4.05139Merkley +12
SurveyUSA8/1 - 8/5564 LV4.25233Merkley +19
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV2.65541Merkley +14
SurveyUSA6/5 - 6/9560 LV4.25032Merkley +18
PPP (D)5/22 - 5/27956 RV3.25036Merkley +14
Rasmussen Reports5/21 - 5/22750 LV4.04737Merkley +10
Vox Populi/Daily Caller (R)4/28 - 4/30618 RV3.94145Wehby +4
Harper (R)4/1 - 4/2670 LV3.94634Merkley +12