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Oklahoma Senate - Lankford vs. Johnson

Candidates

Connie Johnson

Connie Johnson (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

James Lankford

James Lankford (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Oklahoma Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe GOP
2014 Key Races: Governor | Senate

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | OK-2
2010Governor | Senate | OK-2
2008: President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate | OK-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEJohnson (D)Lankford (R)Spread
Final Results------29.067.9Lankford +38.9
RCP Average8/27 - 10/29----28.760.0Lankford +31.3
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6*10/25 - 10/29949 LV3.22859Lankford +31
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23995 LV5.02963Lankford +34
Rasmussen Reports8/27 - 8/28750 LV4.02958Lankford +29

All Oklahoma Senate - Lankford vs. Johnson Polling Data

Race Analysis

In 2004, former Senate Majority Whip Don Nickles, a Republican, decided to retire. The Republican Party had a divisive primary battle between Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys and former Congressman Tom Coburn. Humphreys was the establishment candidate, while Coburn, from the northeastern portion of the state, was seen as a rabble-rouser with a penchant for missteps (such as declaring that schools in southeastern Oklahoma would only let one girl at a time go to the bathroom because of rampant lesbianism). Coburn won the primary, and Republicans held their breath as he faced off against conservative Democrat Brad Carson. In the end, the race wasn’t close: Coburn won by 10 points.

Coburn became quite popular in Oklahoma, and won his 2010 re-election race by 44 points. But he decided to honor a term-limits pledge and retire in 2016. After a bout with prostate cancer, Coburn announced that he would retire early, setting off a special election for 2014. Rep. Jim Lankford, who represents Oklahoma City and its wealthy northern suburbs, won his primary against T.W. Shannon by a surprisingly large margin, and seems well-positioned for his general election battle against state Sen. Connie Johnson.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEJohnson (D)Lankford (R)Spread
Final Results------29.067.9Lankford +38.9
RCP Average8/27 - 10/29----28.760.0Lankford +31.3
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6*10/25 - 10/29949 LV3.22859Lankford +31
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23995 LV5.02963Lankford +34
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11244 LV3.02465Lankford +41
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6*9/27 - 9/29400 LV4.92856Lankford +28
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/2821 LV5.02861Lankford +33
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6*8/28 - 8/30603 LV4.02858Lankford +30
Rasmussen Reports8/27 - 8/28750 LV4.02958Lankford +29
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV4.73457Lankford +23