Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- There hasn't been much polling here, although there are rumblings that the race has tightened. An upset here would be a true shocker, but don't be surprised if it ends up a tighter race than expected.

9/29/14 -- Udall is above 50 percent and heavily favored to win, but the fact that his margins in the polls have been relatively close counsels placing this on the watch list for now.

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For years, New Mexico was an island of Democratic-leaning voting in the rock-ribbed Republican Mountain West. Republicans haven't controlled the state Senate since the 1920s, nor have they won the state House since the 1950s. The state has a Latino plurality, many of whose families have lived in the Land of Enchantment since it was part of Mexico. Geographically, the counties in the north are heavily Democratic, the counties in the southeast are mostly Republican, and the city of Albuquerque and its suburbs are a Democratic-leaning swing area.

During the 1970s, the Mountain West leaned Republican enough that New Mexico looked like promising territory for the GOP. It elected two Republican senators as well as Republican governors. One of these senators, Harrison Schmidt, was expected to have a long career in New Mexico politics. But in the bad Republican year of 1982, he lost to the state's popular attorney general, Jeff Bingaman. The other senator, Pete Domenici, won relatively close races in 1972 and 1978, then won easily thereafter. But he called it a career in 2008, and the bad Republican year, combined with a candidate who was too conservative for the state, virtually guaranteed a Democratic takeover.

Rep. Tom Udall, the son of former Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall (and nephew of Rep. Mo Udall) won the 2008 race handily. The 2014 elections are shaping up in a very different environment, but Udall didn’t draw a top-flight opponent. If things get really bad for Democrats, Republicans could find themselves victorious, but otherwise Udall is likely in for a second term.