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New Jersey Senate - Bell vs. Booker

Candidates

Jeff Bell

Jeff Bell (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Cory Booker

Cory Booker (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

New Jersey Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Likely Dem
2014 Key Races: NJ-2 | NJ-3 | NJ-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2013Governor | Senate (Special)
2012President | NJ-3 | NJ-7
2010: NJ-3 | NJ-6 | NJ-12
2009: Governor
2008: President | Senate | NJ-3 | NJ-7 
2006: Senate
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBell (R)Booker (D)Spread
Final Results------42.455.8Booker +13.4
RCP Average9/25 - 11/2----38.453.8Booker +15.4
Monmouth10/30 - 11/2750 LV3.64054Booker +14
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231868 LV4.03951Booker +12
Richard Stockton College10/18 - 10/22806 LV3.53357Booker +24
Fairleigh Dickinson10/13 - 10/19525 LV4.34056Booker +16
Quinnipiac9/25 - 9/291058 LV3.04051Booker +11

All New Jersey Senate - Bell vs. Booker Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
New Jersey Senate - Bell vs. Booker
38.4Bell (R)
53.8Booker (D)+15.4
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Race Analysis

To the casual observer, New Jersey appears to be solidly Democratic. Yet this overlooks the nuances of state politics. With a handful of exceptions, New Jersey has actually voted within a few points of the national average in presidential elections over the past 100 years. However, its lean is Democratic -- and rather consistently so over the past few years. Republicans rarely get blown out of the water here, but neither do they typically eclipse the 50 percent mark.

That seems to be the scenario unfolding this cycle. Jeffrey Bell ended the career of the last Republican senator elected from the state in 1978 in what we today would probably call a Tea Party challenge. Today Bell is facing off against freshman Sen. Cory Booker. Polls have shown a surprisingly close race, but Booker still remains a solid favorite.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBell (R)Booker (D)Spread
Final Results------42.455.8Booker +13.4
RCP Average9/25 - 11/2----38.453.8Booker +15.4
Monmouth10/30 - 11/2750 LV3.64054Booker +14
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231868 LV4.03951Booker +12
Richard Stockton College10/18 - 10/22806 LV3.53357Booker +24
Fairleigh Dickinson10/13 - 10/19525 LV4.34056Booker +16
Richard Stockton College10/5 - 10/8810 LV3.53948Booker +9
Monmouth10/2 - 10/5477 LV4.53853Booker +15
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12011 LV3.03751Booker +14
Quinnipiac9/25 - 9/291058 LV3.04051Booker +11
Richard Stockton College9/5 - 9/8807 LV3.53649Booker +13
Fairleigh Dickinson9/1 - 9/7721 RV3.72942Booker +13
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/22244 LV3.03752Booker +15
Quinnipiac7/31 - 8/41148 RV2.93747Booker +10
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV3.44350Booker +7
Monmouth6/25 - 6/29717 RV3.72343Booker +20
Rasmussen Reports6/17 - 6/18750 LV4.03548Booker +13