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New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen

Candidates

Scott Brown

Scott Brown (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Jeanne Shaheen

Jeanne Shaheen (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

New Hampshire Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Governor | NH-1 | NH-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | GovernorNH-1 | NH-2
2010Governor | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2
2008: President | Senate | NH-1
2006: Governor | NH-2
2004: President | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrown (R)Shaheen (D)Spread
Final Results------48.451.6Shaheen +3.2
RCP Average10/27 - 11/3----48.048.8Shaheen +0.8
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/31690 LV2.44850Shaheen +2
WMUR/UNH10/29 - 11/2757 LV3.64849Shaheen +1
New England College10/31 - 11/11526 LV2.54948Brown +1
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/30940 LV3.04552Shaheen +7
ARG10/27 - 10/29600 LV4.04949Tie
Vox Populi (R)10/27 - 10/28638 LV3.94945Brown +4

All New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen
48.0Brown (R)
48.8Shaheen (D)+0.8
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Brown seems to be coming back at the end, but Shaheen is right up against the vote share she'll need to win. This race probably comes down to which pollster has a better view of the electorate: New England College or UNH.

10/28/14 -- Shaheen is clinging stubbornly to a two-point lead, and Brown's momentum seems to have subsided. This is a tossup, but you have to like Shaheen's odds right now.

10/17/14 -- Brown continues to whittle away at the gap. This could go down to the wire.

10/7/14 -- Brown is gaining on Shaheen, but she remains close to 50 percent. It isn’t clear Brown will have enough time to completely close this gap.

9/23/14 -- CNN showed a tied race, but it looks to be an outlier (along with the New England College poll showing Shaheen up 11). Brown has likely picked up “soft” Republicans, and now the harder task of convincing Independents and soft Democrats to vote for him remains.

9/8/14 -- After remaining surprisingly quiet for much of the cycle, this race is finally showing some signs of life. The polls have tightened, but Shaheen maintains a lead in all of them, and has to be considered the favorite right now.

----------Race Preview----------

For most of the late 20th century, New Hampshire’s politics were driven by an influx of citizens from Massachusetts. In the 1970s and ’80s, these voters were sympathetic to the taxpayer revolt and threw out both Democratic senators in favor of Republicans. In the 1990s and 2000s, these same voters, like many Northern suburbanites, began to rebel against the Southern-accented GOP’s conservative values on social issues, and the state elected mostly Democratic governors, while Republicans saw their margin in the Senate races shrink. In 2008 they lost one of their Senate seats, as a scion of a prominent New Hampshire Republican family was handily defeated by a former Democratic governor, Jeanne Shaheen.

But 2010 quickly reminded us that New Hampshire’s politics remain volatile. Attorney General Kelly Ayotte defeated Rep. Paul Hodes by over 20 points, while Republicans picked up both House seats. Republicans won their largest majorities in the state Senate since 1962 and the state House since 1900. In 2012, however, the state swung back, with Barack Obama carrying it by slightly more than the national average while Democrats recaptured both House seats and the state House of Representatives.

Republicans are hoping that New Hampshire will swing back in their direction again in 2014, allowing them to recapture the U.S. House seats as well as the Senate seat that Shaheen claimed in 2008. To that end, they have recruited former Sen. Scott Brown from Massachusetts, who lost to Elizabeth Warren in 2012. Brown is probably a better fit for the state ideologically than Shaheen (who isn’t a bad fit herself), but he bears the carpetbagger label and Shaheen is personally popular. Right now it looks like a wave election would be needed to drag Shaheen under, but that might be where we’re headed.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrown (R)Shaheen (D)Spread
Final Results------48.451.6Shaheen +3.2
RCP Average10/27 - 11/3----48.048.8Shaheen +0.8
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/31690 LV2.44850Shaheen +2
WMUR/UNH10/29 - 11/2757 LV3.64849Shaheen +1
New England College10/31 - 11/11526 LV2.54948Brown +1
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/30940 LV3.04552Shaheen +7
ARG10/27 - 10/29600 LV4.04949Tie
Vox Populi (R)10/27 - 10/28638 LV3.94945Brown +4
WMUR/UNH10/22 - 10/26555 LV4.24250Shaheen +8
New England College10/24 - 10/241132 LV2.94847Brown +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231042 LV4.04146Shaheen +5
ARG10/19 - 10/22600 LV4.04849Shaheen +1
CNN/Opinion Research10/18 - 10/21645 LV4.04749Shaheen +2
UMass Lowell/7News10/15 - 10/21643 LV4.54649Shaheen +3
Suffolk/Boston Herald10/16 - 10/19500 LV4.44649Shaheen +3
New England College10/16 - 10/16921 LV3.24847Brown +1
UMass Amherst/WBZ10/10 - 10/15322 LV6.64548Shaheen +3
New England College10/9 - 10/91081 LV3.04847Brown +1
High Point/SurveyUSA10/4 - 10/8824 LV3.54648Shaheen +2
WMUR/UNH9/29 - 10/5532 LV4.24147Shaheen +6
New England College10/3 - 10/31286 LV2.74649Shaheen +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11260 LV3.04148Shaheen +7
ARG9/27 - 9/29600 LV4.04353Shaheen +10
New England College9/26 - 9/261331 LV2.74747Tie
New England College9/19 - 9/201494 LV2.54350Shaheen +7
Vox Populi (R)9/15 - 9/16550 RV4.24743Brown +4
ARG9/12 - 9/15LV--4550Shaheen +5
Rasmussen Reports9/10 - 9/11750 LV4.04248Shaheen +6
New England College9/10 - 9/11630 LV4.04051Shaheen +11
CNN/Opinion Research9/8 - 9/11735 LV3.54848Tie
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21159 LV4.04147Shaheen +6
WMUR/UNH8/7 - 8/17609 LV4.04446Shaheen +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV2.94252Shaheen +10
NBC News/Marist7/7 - 7/131342 RV2.74250Shaheen +8
WMUR/UNH6/19 - 7/1509 LV4.34052Shaheen +12
Suffolk/Boston Herald*6/14 - 6/18800 LV3.53949Shaheen +10
ARG6/14 - 6/18540 RV4.23850Shaheen +12
Vox Populi (R)5/14 - 5/15707 RV3.63547Shaheen +12
CEA/Hickman Analytics (D)4/24 - 4/30400 LV4.94349Shaheen +6
Dartmouth4/21 - 4/25412 RV4.83639Shaheen +3
WMUR/UNH4/1 - 4/9387 LV5.03945Shaheen +6
ARG3/13 - 3/16533 RV4.23850Shaheen +12
Rasmussen Reports3/12 - 3/13750 LV4.04150Shaheen +9
Suffolk/Boston Herald2/27 - 3/5800 LV3.53952Shaheen +13
WMUR/UNH1/21 - 1/26454 LV--3747Shaheen +10
Purple Strategies1/21 - 1/231052 LV3.04444Tie
PPP (D)1/9 - 1/121354 RV2.74346Shaheen +3
ARG12/13 - 12/16549 RV4.23848Shaheen +10
PPP (D)9/13 - 9/161038 RV3.04448Shaheen +4
New England College5/2 - 5/5807 RV3.33554Shaheen +19
Dartmouth4/22 - 4/25433 RV4.73044Shaheen +14