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Mississippi Senate - Cochran vs. Childers

Candidates

Travis Childers

Travis Childers (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Thad Cochran

Thad Cochran (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Mississippi Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Likely GOP

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President | Senate
2011: Governor
2010: MS-1 | MS-2 | MS-4
2008: President | Senate | MS-1
2007: Governor
2006: Senate
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEChilders (D)Cochran (R)Spread
Final Results------37.460.4Cochran +23.0
RCP Average6/25 - 10/23----29.345.7Cochran +16.4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23654 LV7.02850Cochran +22
PPP (D)7/10 - 7/13691 RV3.72641Cochran +15
Rasmussen Reports6/25 - 6/26750 LV4.03446Cochran +12

All Mississippi Senate - Cochran vs. Childers Polling Data

Race Analysis

9/8/14 -- McDaniel is continuing to challenge the primary results, although his bid looks increasingly quixotic. It will be interesting to see if the goodwill among African-Americans that Cochran earned in the primary continues through the general election.

----------Race Preview----------

Less than 100 years ago, Mississippi was one of the most Democratic states in the country. In 1936, Republican presidential candidate Alf Landon received a pitiful 3 percent of the vote there; indeed, no Republican received more than 20 percent of the vote in Mississippi from 1892 through 1948 (when Tom Dewey again received 3 percent). From 1903 through 1971, the state failed to elect a single Republican state legislator.

Obviously those days have long since passed, and the state is reliably Republican today. The state Senate and House are controlled by the GOP, three of the four House seats are Republican, and both Senate seats are Republican; Republicans hold every statewide office save for that of attorney general.

In 1978, Thad Cochran, then a 40-year old member of Congress, became a surprise winner of a Senate seat in the state, becoming the first Republican to do so in the Deep South since Reconstruction (Strom Thurmond won re-election as a Republican, but had been elected multiple times previously as a Democrat).

Cochran handily defeated Gov. William Winter in 1984, and coasted to re-election every time since. But while the state became more Republican, the Republicans were becoming more conservative. Cochran drew a strong primary challenger in state Sen. Chris McDaniel, who came out on top during the first round of voting. But McDaniel failed to attain the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff, and in the second round of voting, Cochran shocked observers by emerging victorious. McDaniel is challenging the results, claiming voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary in the first round and then illegally voted in the Republican runoff. But for now, Cochran looks like the nominee, and the likely winner in the general election.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEChilders (D)Cochran (R)Spread
Final Results------37.460.4Cochran +23.0
RCP Average6/25 - 10/23----29.345.7Cochran +16.4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23654 LV7.02850Cochran +22
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/1826 LV4.03546Cochran +11
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/2976 LV4.03146Cochran +15
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV5.73347Cochran +14
PPP (D)7/10 - 7/13691 RV3.72641Cochran +15
Rasmussen Reports6/25 - 6/26750 LV4.03446Cochran +12
Rasmussen Reports3/26 - 3/29750 LV4.03148Cochran +17
PPP (D)11/15 - 11/17502 RV4.43350Cochran +17