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Minnesota Senate - McFadden vs. Franken

Candidates

Al Franken

Al Franken (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Mike McFadden

Mike McFadden (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Minnesota Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Likely Dem
2014 Key Races: Governor | MN-1 | MN-2 | MN-7 | MN-8

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | MN-6 | MN-8
2010: Governor | MN-1 | MN-6 | MN-7 | MN-8
2008: President | Senate | MN-3 | MN-6 
2006: Senate | Governor | MN-6 
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEFranken (D)McFadden (R)Spread
Final Results------53.242.9Franken +10.3
RCP Average10/16 - 10/30----50.040.0Franken +10.0
KSTP/SurveyUSA*10/27 - 10/30596 LV4.15140Franken +11
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232430 LV3.05141Franken +10
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon*10/20 - 10/22800 LV3.54839Franken +9

All Minnesota Senate - McFadden vs. Franken Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Minnesota Senate - McFadden vs. Franken
50.0Franken (D)+10.0
40.0McFadden (R)
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Race Analysis

10/7/14 -- The recent SurveyUSA poll is a departure from previous polling that had shown a tightening race. It could be that Franken’s spending is finally taking hold here.

----------Race Preview----------

It is difficult to imagine today, but before the 1940s there was no Democratic Party in Minnesota to speak of. From the election of Abraham Lincoln through 1948, it had never elected a Democratic senator (though one was appointed for a two-month stint in 1900). It sent a total of 15 Democrats to Congress during that time. But the Democratic Party fused with the left-leaning Farmer-Labor Party in 1944 and created a dominant force in state politics. From 1948 through 1978 the tables were turned: the state elected just one Republican senator.

In the mid-'70s, the DFL began to decline in popularity, and for a time the state had two Republican senators. Today it is thought of as a swing state, even though it hasn't voted Republican at the presidential level since 1972. Against this background, it was something of a surprise to many when Al Franken, a satirist who defied many conceptions of “Minnesota nice,” defeated Sen. Norm Coleman, a relatively moderate Republican, by the narrowest of margins. It is perhaps even more surprising that Franken spent much of this cycle as an odds-on favorite for re-election. The polls have tightened somewhat lately, but he maintains a clear edge.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEFranken (D)McFadden (R)Spread
Final Results------53.242.9Franken +10.3
RCP Average10/16 - 10/30----50.040.0Franken +10.0
KSTP/SurveyUSA*10/27 - 10/30596 LV4.15140Franken +11
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232430 LV3.05141Franken +10
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon*10/20 - 10/22800 LV3.54839Franken +9
KSTP/SurveyUSA*10/14 - 10/16597 LV4.15338Franken +15
KSTP/SurveyUSA*9/30 - 10/2577 LV4.15537Franken +18
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12562 LV2.04942Franken +7
Rasmussen Reports9/29 - 9/30750 LV4.04941Franken +8
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon*9/8 - 9/10800 LV3.54936Franken +13
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/23607 LV2.04941Franken +8
KSTP/SurveyUSA*8/19 - 8/21600 LV4.15142Franken +9
Rasmussen Reports8/13 - 8/14750 LV4.05042Franken +8
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV2.05541Franken +14
PPP (D)6/12 - 6/15633 RV3.94938Franken +11
KSTP/SurveyUSA*6/5 - 6/91017 LV3.14842Franken +6
Suffolk*4/24 - 4/28800 LV3.54429Franken +15
KSTP/SurveyUSA2/25 - 2/27545 RV4.35040Franken +10
PPP (D)10/27 - 10/29895 RV3.34938Franken +11
PPP (D)5/17 - 5/19712 RV3.75136Franken +15