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Michigan Senate - Land vs. Peters

Candidates

Terri Lynn Land

Terri Lynn Land (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Gary Peters

Gary Peters (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Michigan Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Likely Dem
2014 Key Races: Governor | MI-1 | MI-4MI-6 | MI-7 | MI-8 | MI-11

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | SenateMI-1 | MI-3 | MI-11
2010Governor | MI-1 | MI-7 | MI-9 | MI-15
2008: President | MI-7 | MI-9
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoELand (R)Peters (D)Spread
Final Results------41.454.6Peters +13.2
RCP Average10/20 - 11/2----37.650.4Peters +12.8
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*11/2 - 11/21224 LV2.84052Peters +12
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/2914 LV3.23851Peters +13
EPIC-MRA10/26 - 10/28600 LV4.03550Peters +15
Detroit News*10/22 - 10/24600 LV4.03348Peters +15
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/221000 LV3.04251Peters +9

All Michigan Senate - Land vs. Peters Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Michigan Senate - Land vs. Peters
37.6Land (R)
50.4Peters (D)+12.8
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Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- This is one race where undecided voters are breaking heavily for the Democrats. Land just can't seem to get any momentum going here.

10/7/14 -- Peters seems to be putting this one to bed. There are still an awful lot of undecided voters, and he remains below 45 percent, but Land just can’t seem to get any momentum going here.

9/29/14 -- The most recent polls suggest a slight tightening in the race, although everyone agrees Peters is in the lead. A huge number of undecided voters complicates analysis greatly.

9/8/14 -- We've had some polls showing a closer race, and those surveys have tended to have fewer undecideds. One plausible interpretation is that Peters secured the Democratic base early, while Land is just now bringing home Republicans. Peters still has the edge here, but the race remains interesting.

6/12/14 -- Over the past few months, Land’s edge in the race has deteriorated. Both candidates are still well below 50 percent, but for now, Peters looks like he has the lead.

----------Race Preview---------

For much of its history, Michigan was one of the most Republican states in the union. In 1920, it gave Democrat John Cox just 22 percent of the vote; in 1924 it gave John W. Davis only 13 percent; and in 1928 it gave Al Smith 29 percent of the vote. But in the wake of the sit-down strikes of the 1930s and the high level of unionization that followed, Michigan quickly became competitive. The state was split between "outstate" Michigan, which retained its Republican heritage, and Detroit, which was solidly Democratic. When the Detroit suburbs, like most northern suburbs, swung toward the Democrats in the 1990s, they took the state with them. Michigan has been reliably Democratic at the presidential level since the 1992 elections.

Defense Impacts: With Michigan's defense industry on the ropes, two candidates square off to replace the retiring Senate Armed Services Committee chairman.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

But in 2010, it swung toward the Republicans. Political novice Rick Snyder defeated Democrat Virg Bernero for governor by a stunning 19-point margin, while Republicans racked up impressive majorities in the state legislature. In 2012 the state swung back, giving Barack Obama a 10-point win and Sen. Debbie Stabenow a 20-point victory over a credible opponent.

The big question for 2014 is which electorate will show up. Republicans have a credible candidate in Terri Lynn Land, a former secretary of state. Democrats also have a good candidate in Rep. Gary Peters, who represented the Detroit suburbs before winning a competitive primary for a majority African-American district. Polls show Land with a reasonably consistent lead, but she is a long way from 50 percent. While this remains a tossup, it is hard to see a path to victory for Land until she starts getting above 46 percent of the vote, or so, in polls.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoELand (R)Peters (D)Spread
Final Results------41.454.6Peters +13.2
RCP Average10/20 - 11/2----37.650.4Peters +12.8
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*11/2 - 11/21224 LV2.84052Peters +12
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/2914 LV3.23851Peters +13
EPIC-MRA10/26 - 10/28600 LV4.03550Peters +15
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*10/27 - 10/271159 LV2.93852Peters +14
Detroit News*10/22 - 10/24600 LV4.03348Peters +15
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232394 LV3.04149Peters +8
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/221000 LV3.04251Peters +9
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*10/19 - 10/19919 LV3.23851Peters +13
EPIC-MRA10/17 - 10/19600 LV4.03445Peters +11
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*10/12 - 10/121340 LV2.73950Peters +11
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*10/9 - 10/91306 LV2.74348Peters +5
Detroit News*10/2 - 10/4600 LV4.03544Peters +9
MRG (R)9/30 - 10/1600 LV4.03647Peters +11
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12560 LV2.04146Peters +5
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*9/29 - 9/291178 LV2.93649Peters +13
EPIC-MRA*9/25 - 9/29600 LV4.03342Peters +9
Target-Insyght/MIRS9/22 - 9/24600 LV4.03848Peters +10
WeAskAmerica*9/18 - 9/191182 LV3.03942Peters +3
Rasmussen Reports9/17 - 9/18750 LV4.03941Peters +2
Magellan Strategies (R)*9/14 - 9/15717 LV3.74045Peters +5
Mitchell Research*9/14 - 9/14829 LV3.44143Peters +2
Vanguard/Denno Research (D)9/11 - 9/13600 LV4.03845Peters +7
USA Today/Suffolk*9/6 - 9/10500 LV4.43746Peters +9
PPP (D)9/4 - 9/7687 LV3.74045Peters +5
Detroit News9/3 - 9/5600 LV4.03747Peters +10
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/22897 LV3.04342Land +1
Mitchell Research8/27 - 8/271004 LV3.14446Peters +2
EPIC-MRA8/22 - 8/25600 LV4.03945Peters +6
Mitchell Research8/5 - 8/5626 LV5.04445Peters +1
Harper (R)8/4 - 8/5549 LV4.24445Peters +1
MRG (R)7/26 - 7/30600 LV4.04047Peters +7
Rasmussen Reports7/28 - 7/29750 LV4.03945Peters +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV2.84847Land +1
Mitchell Research7/7 - 7/17600 LV4.03843Peters +5
EPIC-MRA7/12 - 7/15600 LV4.03645Peters +9
Vanguard/Denno Research (D)7/9 - 7/11600 LV4.03740Peters +3
NBC News/Marist7/7 - 7/10870 RV3.33743Peters +6
PPP (D)6/26 - 6/29578 RV4.13641Peters +5
Magellan Strategies (R)6/5 - 6/8753 LV3.64150Peters +9
Mitchell Research6/6 - 6/6961 LV3.24245Peters +3
Detroit News5/20 - 5/22600 LV4.03540Peters +5
EPIC-MRA5/17 - 5/20600 LV4.03844Peters +6
CEA/Hickman Analytics (D)4/24 - 4/30502 LV4.43742Peters +5
Magellan Strategies (R)4/14 - 4/15875 LV3.34146Peters +5
Mitchell Research4/9 - 4/91460 LV2.64438Land +6
PPP (D)4/3 - 4/6825 RV3.43641Peters +5
MRG (R)3/24 - 3/28600 LV4.14038Land +2
LE&A/Denno Research (D)3/9 - 3/10600 LV4.03740Peters +3
EPIC-MRA2/5 - 2/11600 LV4.04138Land +3
Rasmussen Reports1/14 - 1/15500 LV4.53735Land +2
Harper (R)1/7 - 1/81004 LV3.14436Land +8
PPP (D)12/5 - 12/81034 RV3.04240Land +2
LE&A/Denno Research (D)11/12 - 11/14600 LV4.03637Peters +1
Inside Michigan Politics10/29 - 10/29794 LV4.03843Peters +5
EPIC-MRA9/7 - 9/10600 LV4.03738Peters +1
LE&A/Denno Research (D)7/23 - 7/24600 LV4.03939Tie
PPP (D)5/30 - 6/2697 RV3.73641Peters +5
Mitchell Research3/19 - 3/21571 LV4.13233Peters +1
Harper (R)3/9 - 3/101744 LV2.42921Land +8