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Maine Senate - Collins vs. Bellows

Candidates

Shenna Bellows

Shenna Bellows (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Susan Collins

Susan Collins (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Maine Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe GOP
2014 Key Races: Governor | ME-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | ME-2
2010: Governor | ME-1 | ME-2
2008: President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | ME-1 | ME-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBellows (D)Collins (R)Spread
Final Results------31.568.5Collins +37.0
RCP Average10/15 - 11/2----32.261.4Collins +29.2
MPRC (D)10/31 - 11/2906 LV3.33757Collins +20
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos10/23 - 10/29488 LV5.13264Collins +32
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231177 LV5.03554Collins +19
Pan Atlantic SMS10/15 - 10/21400 LV4.92767Collins +40
Portland Press Herald10/15 - 10/21667 LV3.83065Collins +35

All Maine Senate - Collins vs. Bellows Polling Data

Race Analysis

"As goes Maine, so goes the nation." This was the rule of thumb for political prognosticators for decades. Maine is a quirky state, and for years it held its elections in September. This gave an early view of the mood of the country in the years before reliable public opinion polling. But make no mistake, for years the only question concerned the degree of victory the Republican candidate would earn in Maine. Until 1954, when Democrat Ed Muskie won, Republicans had lost only five gubernatorial elections -- at a time when those elections were held every two years. Since the Civil War, Maine Democrats have sent only a handful of senators to Washington; most have been Republicans, although they have been cut from a decidedly moderate, or even liberal, cloth.

Susan Collins may be the last Republican in that vein. She was elected in 1996 by a surprisingly close margin, and faced races that were at least somewhat competitive until fairly late in the cycle in 2002 and 2008. But she enjoys high approval ratings, and drew an inexperienced opponent in state ACLU Director Shenna Bellows. She is a safe bet for re-election.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBellows (D)Collins (R)Spread
Final Results------31.568.5Collins +37.0
RCP Average10/15 - 11/2----32.261.4Collins +29.2
MPRC (D)10/31 - 11/2906 LV3.33757Collins +20
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos10/23 - 10/29488 LV5.13264Collins +32
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231177 LV5.03554Collins +19
Pan Atlantic SMS10/15 - 10/21400 LV4.92767Collins +40
Portland Press Herald10/15 - 10/21667 LV3.83065Collins +35
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos*10/6 - 10/12540 LV4.83156Collins +25
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11531 LV3.03357Collins +24
Pan Atlantic SMS9/23 - 9/29400 LV4.92568Collins +43
Portland Press Herald9/18 - 9/25482 LV4.42959Collins +30
Rasmussen Reports9/3 - 9/4750 LV4.03159Collins +28
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21202 LV4.02658Collins +32
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV2.72965Collins +36
Portland Press Herald6/12 - 6/18527 LV4.31772Collins +55
Rasmussen Reports4/23 - 4/25830 LV3.02460Collins +36
PPP (D)11/8 - 11/11964 RV3.22059Collins +39