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Massachusetts Senate - Herr vs. Markey

Candidates

Brian Herr

Brian Herr (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Ed Markey

Ed Markey (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Massachusetts Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe Dem
2014 Key Races: Governor | MA-6 | MA-9

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President | SenateMA-6
2010: Gov | Sen | MA-4 | MA-5 | MA-6 | MA-10
2008: President
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEHerr (R)Markey (D)Spread
Final Results------38.062.0Markey +24.0
RCP Average10/20 - 11/1----35.053.0Markey +18.0
PPP (D)10/30 - 11/1887 LV3.33852Markey +14
Western NE University10/21 - 10/30430 LV5.03454Markey +20
Suffolk/Boston Herald10/27 - 10/29500 LV4.43449Markey +15
UMass Amherst/WBZ10/20 - 10/27591 LV4.53753Markey +16
WBUR/MassINC10/22 - 10/25494 LV4.43257Markey +25

All Massachusetts Senate - Herr vs. Markey Polling Data

Race Analysis

For years, Massachusetts was one of the most solidly Republican states in the nation. From the founding of the Republican Party through 1928, the state voted for only a single Democrat, in 1912, when the Progressive wing of the Republican Party split off to form a short-lived third party. But as time passed and more and more Irish and other minorities moved to Boston, the Democrats' strength grew. By the late 1800s Boston was a mostly Democratic city, by the 1930s the state was Democratic in national elections, and by the 1960s it was donkeys all the way down.

Today the Republican Party is now virtually extinct in the state legislature, and the state hasn't sent a Republican to the House of Representatives since 1996. But in January 2010 the political world was shocked when an obscure state senator defeated Attorney General Martha Coakley in a special election to claim Ted Kennedy's seat by a five-point margin. Coakley won the solidly liberal western portion of the state and Boston, but it wasn't enough to offset Scott Brown's margins in the suburbs. But Brown was not able to hold on in a presidential year and lost to law professor Elizabeth Warren.

When John Kerry became secretary of state, Republicans hoped that they might repeat the feat with Gabriel Gomez. They fell short with Gomez, who nevertheless managed to hold Rep. Ed Markey to a surprisingly soft 10-point win. Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr doesn’t seem likely to succeed where Gomez failed.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEHerr (R)Markey (D)Spread
Final Results------38.062.0Markey +24.0
RCP Average10/20 - 11/1----35.053.0Markey +18.0
PPP (D)10/30 - 11/1887 LV3.33852Markey +14
Western NE University10/21 - 10/30430 LV5.03454Markey +20
Suffolk/Boston Herald10/27 - 10/29500 LV4.43449Markey +15
UMass Amherst/WBZ10/20 - 10/27591 LV4.53753Markey +16
WBUR/MassINC10/22 - 10/25494 LV4.43257Markey +25
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232218 LV3.03254Markey +22
WBUR/MassINC10/1 - 10/4504 LV4.43056Markey +26
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12389 LV2.03154Markey +23
Suffolk/Boston Herald9/25 - 9/28500 LV4.43054Markey +24
Western NE University9/20 - 9/28416 LV5.03456Markey +22
WBUR/MassINC9/16 - 9/21502 LV4.43058Markey +28
Rasmussen Reports9/16 - 9/17750 LV4.03149Markey +18
Boston Globe9/14 - 9/16407 LV4.92753Markey +26
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV4.93461Markey +27