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Hawaii Senate - Cavasso vs. Schatz

Candidates

Cam Cavasso

Cam Cavasso (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Brian Schatz

Brian Schatz (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Hawaii Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe Dem
2014 Key Races: Governor | HI-1

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate
2010Governor | Senate | HI-1
2008: President
2006: Governor | Senate | HI-1 | HI-2
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECavasso (R)Schatz (D)Spread
Final Results------27.769.8Schatz +42.1
RCP Average9/9 - 10/23----25.061.7Schatz +36.7
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231002 LV6.01870Schatz +52
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG10/16 - 10/191221 LV2.82955Schatz +26
Rasmussen Reports9/9 - 9/10750 LV4.02860Schatz +32

All Hawaii Senate - Cavasso vs. Schatz Polling Data

Race Analysis

While many people are aware of the eight major islands of Hawaii, few are aware that the state actually consists of 19 islands, stretching in a chain across 1,500 miles. A 20th, being formed to the southeast of the Big Island, will likely break water in the next 10,000 years.

When the Hawaiian Islands were admitted to the union, Southern Democrats demanded that Alaska be admitted as a more solidly Democratic counterweight to what was expected to be a pro-civil rights Republican stronghold. These plans went awry, as such plans frequently do. Alaska is now one of our most Republican states, while Hawaii is one of our most Democratic.

The death of Sen. Dan Inouye created something of a fracture within the state’s dominant Democratic Party. While Sen. Inouye’s deathbed wish was apparently to have Rep. Colleen Hanabusa appointed to the seat, Gov. Neil Abercrombie instead appointed Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz to the seat. This keyed off a nasty primary that Schatz won by the slimmest of margins. But with the primary behind him, Schatz is in the driver’s seat for the general election, and almost certainly has another six years in office.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECavasso (R)Schatz (D)Spread
Final Results------27.769.8Schatz +42.1
RCP Average9/9 - 10/23----25.061.7Schatz +36.7
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231002 LV6.01870Schatz +52
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG10/16 - 10/191221 LV2.82955Schatz +26
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11319 LV4.01771Schatz +54
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG9/11 - 9/141055 LV3.02562Schatz +37
Rasmussen Reports9/9 - 9/10750 LV4.02860Schatz +32
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/2655 LV6.02762Schatz +35
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV3.02258Schatz +36