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Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn

Note: If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote plus one, there will be a runoff on January 6.
Three-Way Race: Perdue vs. Nunn vs. Swafford

Candidates

David Perdue

David Perdue (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Michelle Nunn

Michelle Nunn (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Georgia Snapshot

RCP Average: 
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: 
Governor | GA-12

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | GA-12
2010: Governor | Senate | GA-2 | GA-8 | GA-12
2008: President | Senate | GA-8
2006: Governor | GA-8 | GA-12
2004: President | Senate | GA-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEPerdue (R)Nunn (D)Spread
Final Results------53.045.1Perdue +7.9
RCP Average10/27 - 11/3----48.245.4Perdue +2.8
WSB-TV/Landmark*11/2 - 11/21500 LV2.55046Perdue +4
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/3975 LV3.14848Tie
SurveyUSA*10/30 - 11/2591 LV4.14744Perdue +3
InsiderAdvantage*10/30 - 11/21463 LV2.64845Perdue +3
NBC News/Marist*10/27 - 10/30603 LV4.04844Perdue +4

All Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn
48.2Perdue (R)+2.8
45.4Nunn (D)

Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Most signs here point to a runoff, but not all of them. What is somewhat surprising is that Perdue is the candidate who seems to be brushing against the runoff door, while Nunn's numbers are in free fall. If we get to a runoff situation, Perdue's election isn't assured, but it is likely.

10/28/14 -- SurveyUSA and Landmark were previously two of Perdue's worst polls, so there may be some movement back toward the Republican candidate. Of course, the question is still whether either candidate can get to 50 percent plus one, something none of the polls are suggesting.

10/17/14 -- This is one of the few races in the country to break heavily toward Democrats. Perdue certainly hasn’t helped himself with his comments about outsourcing, especially in rural Georgia. The question here is whether Obama’s job approval ultimately acts as an anchor on Nunn, and more importantly, whether she can get to the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff.

10/7/14 -- Perdue maintains a lead, but comments he made about outsourcing may change the dynamics of this race. Stay tuned . . .

9/23/14 -- The race is moving away from Nunn, as people tune in and Georgia reverts to its fundamentals. Even Landmark, which has steadily shown a Nunn advantage, finds voters moving toward Perdue.

9/7/14 -- Recent polls show a tightening in this race, but Nunn's challenge is nevertheless finding a coalition in Georgia to get up around 50 percent.

----------Race Preview----------

In 2002, Georgia snapped. The state had been among the last in the South to cling to its Democratic roots: Bill Clinton carried Georgia in 1992, and a coalition of African-Americans and rural whites had kept the Democrats in control of the governor’s mansion, the legislature and even a Senate seat. All of that changed in 2002, as rural whites revolted, throwing out the Democratic governor, senator, and (two years later) the legislature. Two years later, Republican Johnny Isakson rolled to a 58 percent-40 percent win over Congresswoman Denise Majette. Democrats enjoyed a reasonably close race in the 2008 general election, but fell badly short in the runoff necessitated when neither Saxby Chambliss nor Jim Martin topped 50 percent.

Defense Impacts: A political neophyte battles the daughter of a former Senate Armed Services Committee chairman in one of the most defense-heavy states.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

Democrats are excited about Michelle Nunn’s chances of ending the party’s 14-year dry spell in the Senate, and changing demographics may indeed help the party of Jackson regain its footing here. But this is still a Republican state, and even with massive black turnout in 2008, Democrats couldn’t put the Senate seat away. This race starts out close, with Nunn and Perdue trading leads in the polls, but given the environment and the Republican lean of the state, Perdue probably starts with an edge.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEPerdue (R)Nunn (D)Spread
Final Results------53.045.1Perdue +7.9
RCP Average10/27 - 11/3----48.245.4Perdue +2.8
WSB-TV/Landmark*11/2 - 11/21500 LV2.55046Perdue +4
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/3975 LV3.14848Tie
SurveyUSA*10/30 - 11/2591 LV4.14744Perdue +3
InsiderAdvantage*10/30 - 11/21463 LV2.64845Perdue +3
NBC News/Marist*10/27 - 10/30603 LV4.04844Perdue +4
WSB-TV/Landmark*10/29 - 10/291500 LV2.54747Tie
YouGov*10/25 - 10/311743 LV3.24442Perdue +2
Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/27977 LV3.04848Tie
SurveyUSA*10/24 - 10/27611 LV4.04845Perdue +3
Atlanta Journal-Constitution*10/16 - 10/231170 LV3.64442Perdue +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*10/16 - 10/231774 LV4.04744Perdue +3
InsiderAdvantage*10/21 - 10/22704 LV3.74547Nunn +2
WSB-TV/Landmark*10/20 - 10/211000 LV2.84747Tie
CNN/Opinion Research*10/19 - 10/22565 LV4.04447Nunn +3
SurveyUSA*10/17 - 10/20606 LV4.14446Nunn +2
WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB*10/13 - 10/141543 LV2.54546Nunn +1
SurveyUSA*10/10 - 10/13563 LV4.24548Nunn +3
WSB-TV/Landmark*10/7 - 10/91000 LV3.14646Tie
SurveyUSA*10/2 - 10/6566 LV4.24645Perdue +1
PPP (D)10/2 - 10/5895 LV3.34845Perdue +3
Rasmussen Reports9/30 - 10/11000 LV3.04642Perdue +4
InsiderAdvantage*9/29 - 10/1947 LV3.24743Perdue +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*9/20 - 10/11851 LV3.04743Perdue +4
SurveyUSA*9/19 - 9/22550 LV4.34645Perdue +1
Rasmussen Reports9/15 - 9/16750 LV4.04641Perdue +5
InsiderAdvantage*9/10 - 9/111167 LV2.95040Perdue +10
WSB-TV/Landmark*9/9 - 9/111109 LV2.94346Nunn +3
Atlanta Journal-Constitution*9/8 - 9/11884 LV4.04541Perdue +4
SurveyUSA*9/5 - 9/8558 LV4.24744Perdue +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*8/18 - 9/21900 LV3.04741Perdue +6
WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB*8/24 - 8/251578 LV2.54345Nunn +2
WSB-TV/Landmark*8/20 - 8/21600 LV4.04047Nunn +7
SurveyUSA*8/14 - 8/17560 LV4.25041Perdue +9
InsiderAdvantage*8/12 - 8/13719 LV3.74740Perdue +7
Rasmussen Reports7/23 - 7/24750 LV4.04640Perdue +6
WSB-TV/Landmark*7/25 - 7/25750 LV3.84347Nunn +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV3.45044Perdue +6
WSB-TV/Landmark7/15 - 7/15750 LV4.04248Nunn +6
SurveyUSA*6/3 - 6/5999 LV3.24338Perdue +5
Rasmussen Reports5/21 - 5/22750 LV4.04245Nunn +3
Saint Leo University5/5 - 5/61000 LV3.04137Perdue +4
Atlanta Journal-Constitution5/5 - 5/81012 RV4.04546Nunn +1
NBC News/Marist4/30 - 5/51066 RV3.04541Perdue +4
Landmark/Rosetta Stone4/1 - 4/1600 RV4.03833Perdue +5
PPP (D)8/2 - 8/5520 RV4.34040Tie