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Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall

Candidates

Cory Gardner

Cory Gardner (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mark Udall

Mark Udall (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Colorado Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: GovernorCO-6

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President | CO-3 | CO-6 | CO-7
2010Governor | Senate | CO-3 | CO-4 | CO-7
2008: President | Senate | CO-4 
2006: Governor | CO-4 | CO-5 | CO-7
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEGardner (R)Udall (D)Spread
Final Results------48.546.0Gardner +2.5
RCP Average10/18 - 11/2----46.544.0Gardner +2.5
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/2739 LV3.64845Gardner +3
Quinnipiac*10/28 - 11/2815 LV3.44543Gardner +2
YouGov10/25 - 10/311417 LV3.34342Gardner +1
Denver Post/SurveyUSA*10/27 - 10/29618 LV4.04644Gardner +2
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/23966 LV3.05145Gardner +6
NBC News/Marist10/18 - 10/22755 LV3.64645Gardner +1

All Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall
46.5Gardner (R)+2.5
44.0Udall (D)
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Gardner maintains a clear lead in the polls heading into the final stretch. The party registration of the ballots suggests that he should feel good, but of course party registration and voting don't always match up, and Democrats could see a surge on Election Day. This is a tossup.

10/28/14 -- It may seem counterintuitive, but the CBS/NYT and Marist polls are actually bad news for Udall. The previous iterations had Udall up three and six points, respectively, so they are fully consistent with a race that is moving away from the senator.

10/17/14 -- Gardner has now led in every poll but one since mid-September. His lead is likely “real”; Udall probably needs a late break or for the polls to be simply incorrect to pull this out.

10/7/14 -- The polls are all circling around what seems to be a very close race. One X factor is the advent of mail-in voting, which may skew the pollsters’ voter screens this cycle.

9/29/14 -- Even if the Quinnipiac poll is an outlier, the race seems to have closed and Gardner now has a slight lead.

9/23/14 -- This race seems to have closed somewhat as the parties ramp up their ad blitzes. Udall still has not proved that he can move much beyond 45 percent in the polls.

9/7/14 -- Udall has managed to consistently maintain a lead in this contest, though he remains below 50 percent in most polling. Udall has an edge, but this could still go either way.

----------Race Preview----------

Few states swing the partisan makeup of their Senate delegations as wildly as Colorado does. In the 1960s, the state sent two Republicans to Congress. By 1975, it had two Democrats. The 1980s saw a split delegation, and in the 1990s, after Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched to the Republican Party, there were again two Republicans. But in 2004 voters replaced Campbell with Ken Salazar, and in 2008 Mark Udall replaced retiring Wayne Allard with a 10-point win over former Congressman Bob Schaffer.

Defense Impacts: In the militaryís space hub, an Armed Services subcommittee chairman defends his seat with large defense contributions.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

As of today, the state seems to be swinging back rightward. Republicans narrowly missed claiming the Senate seat of Michael Bennet in 2010, mostly as a result of implosions in the nomination process for both governor and Senate. In 2013, Republicans successfully recalled two Democratic state senators and forced the resignation of a third.

When Mark Udall began this cycle, most analysts thought that he was invulnerable. But his approval ratings have sunk along with the president’s. Compounding matters, Rep. Cory Gardner, a rising star in the state Republican Party, changed his mind and opted to challenge Udall in the general election. Udall had hoped to face Bennet’s 2010 opponent, Ken Buck, but now will draw a top tier challenger. The polls have Udall narrowly ahead, but well under 50 percent. This is very much a tossup.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEGardner (R)Udall (D)Spread
Final Results------48.546.0Gardner +2.5
RCP Average10/18 - 11/2----46.544.0Gardner +2.5
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/2739 LV3.64845Gardner +3
Quinnipiac*10/28 - 11/2815 LV3.44543Gardner +2
YouGov10/25 - 10/311417 LV3.34342Gardner +1
Denver Post/SurveyUSA*10/27 - 10/29618 LV4.04644Gardner +2
Quinnipiac*10/22 - 10/27844 LV3.44639Gardner +7
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/23966 LV3.05145Gardner +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231611 LV4.04647Udall +1
NBC News/Marist10/18 - 10/22755 LV3.64645Gardner +1
USA Today/Suffolk*10/18 - 10/21500 LV4.44639Gardner +7
Quinnipiac*10/15 - 10/21974 LV3.14641Gardner +5
Reuters/Ipsos10/13 - 10/201099 LV3.44745Gardner +2
PPP (D)10/16 - 10/19778 LV3.54744Gardner +3
CNN/Opinion Research10/9 - 10/13665 LV4.05046Gardner +4
Quinnipiac*10/8 - 10/13988 LV3.14741Gardner +6
Denver Post/SurveyUSA*10/9 - 10/12591 LV4.14543Gardner +2
High Point/SurveyUSA10/4 - 10/8800 LV3.54642Gardner +4
FOX News10/4 - 10/7739 LV3.54337Gardner +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11634 LV3.04548Udall +3
Rasmussen Reports9/29 - 9/30950 LV3.04847Gardner +1
USA Today/Suffolk*9/13 - 9/16500 LV4.44342Gardner +1
Quinnipiac*9/10 - 9/151211 LV2.84840Gardner +8
Denver Post/SurveyUSA*9/8 - 9/10664 LV3.94246Udall +4
Rasmussen Reports9/3 - 9/4800 LV4.04244Udall +2
NBC News/Marist9/2 - 9/4795 LV3.54248Udall +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21727 LV4.04346Udall +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV3.04751Udall +4
PPP (D)7/17 - 7/20653 RV3.84344Udall +1
Quinnipiac7/10 - 7/141147 RV2.94442Gardner +2
NBC News/Marist7/7 - 7/10914 RV3.24148Udall +7
Rasmussen Reports6/25 - 6/26750 LV4.04243Udall +1
Magellan Strategies (R)6/5 - 6/8747 LV3.54745Gardner +2
PPP (D)5/7 - 5/8526 RV4.34347Udall +4
Quinnipiac4/15 - 4/211298 RV2.74445Udall +1
Magellan Strategies (R)4/14 - 4/15717 LV3.74245Udall +3
PPP (D)3/13 - 3/16568 RV4.14042Udall +2
Rasmussen Reports3/5 - 3/6500 LV4.54142Udall +1