Polls

Alaska Senate - Sullivan vs. Begich

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Candidates

Dan Sullivan

Dan Sullivan (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mark Begich

Mark Begich (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Alaska Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Governor | AK-AL

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President
2010Governor | Senate
2008: President | Senate | AK-AL
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Sullivan (R)
Begich (D)
Spread
Final Results------48.045.8Sullivan +2.2
RCP Average10/1 - 11/2----46.243.8Sullivan +2.4
PPP (D)*PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/21052 LV3.04645Sullivan +1
Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/30887 LV4.04742Sullivan +5
Ivan Moore ResearchIvan Moore Research10/24 - 10/26544 LV--4248Begich +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23561 LV9.04844Sullivan +4
FOX News*FOX News*10/4 - 10/7706 LV3.54440Sullivan +4
CNN/Opinion ResearchCNN/Opinion Research10/1 - 10/6704 LV3.55044Sullivan +6

All Alaska Senate - Sullivan vs. Begich Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Alaska Senate - Sullivan vs. Begich
Alaska Senate - Sullivan vs. Begich
46.2
Sullivan (R)+2.4
43.8
Begich (D)
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- The polls do suggest a tightening race, but the Ivan Moore poll looks like it may be an outlier. It bears repeating, however, that Alaska is a very difficult state to poll. This remains a tossup.

10/28/14 -- Pollster Ivan Moore strikes a discordant note, although the pollster has a history of substantial errors in the Democrats' direction in the past. We'll need a confirming poll before we really start to weight this one.

9/29/14 -- Polls suggest a growing Sullivan lead, with Begich mired in the low 40s. This race is inching toward “Leans Republican” status for now.

9/7/14 -- Two polls in a row show Sullivan up on Begich. Alaska polling remains fickle and untrustworthy, but at the very least, it seems like Sullivan has righted the ship back to a tossup.

----------Race Preview----------

Alaska was admitted to the Union as the political counterweight to Hawaii. Alaska was supposed to be the Democratic state, while Hawaii would be the Republican one. It worked out that way for a few years, but the party loyalties quickly switched -- Alaska became a staunchly Republican state by the 1970s, while Hawaii became equally as Democratic.

Defense Impacts: A vulnerable Democratic incumbent defends his seat by touting his legislative record on Air Force basing.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

One of the earliest indicators that Alaska was headed toward the GOP was the election of its first Republican senator in 1970, Ted Stevens. Stevens then had little trouble with his re-election efforts until 2008. Even though he had been convicted on multiple felony counts shortly before that election, Stevens lost by less than a percentage point to Democrat Mark Begich.

Begich started out 2014 as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents. But he has run a smart campaign, while Republican nominee Dan Sullivan slogged through a tough primary and suffered some gaffes. Early polls show Begich up, but Alaska polling is notoriously inaccurate. We likely won't have a good indication who will win this race until the morning after Election Day.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Sullivan (R)
Begich (D)
Spread
Final Results------48.045.8Sullivan +2.2
RCP Average10/1 - 11/2----46.243.8Sullivan +2.4
PPP (D)*PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/21052 LV3.04645Sullivan +1
Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/30887 LV4.04742Sullivan +5
Ivan Moore ResearchIvan Moore Research10/24 - 10/26544 LV--4248Begich +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23561 LV9.04844Sullivan +4
Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports10/8 - 10/12700 LV4.04845Sullivan +3
FOX News*FOX News*10/4 - 10/7706 LV3.54440Sullivan +4
CNN/Opinion ResearchCNN/Opinion Research10/1 - 10/6704 LV3.55044Sullivan +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/1593 LV5.04842Sullivan +6
Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports9/23 - 9/24750 LV4.04843Sullivan +5
PPP (D)PPP (D)9/18 - 9/21880 LV3.34542Sullivan +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/2412 LV6.04438Sullivan +6
Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports8/20 - 8/21750 LV4.04745Sullivan +2
PPP (D)PPP (D)7/31 - 8/3673 RV3.84145Begich +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/24LV5.23749Begich +12
PPP (D)**PPP (D)**5/8 - 5/11582 RV4.13742Begich +5
Magellan Strategies (R)Magellan Strategies (R)4/14 - 4/14603 LV4.04641Sullivan +5
Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports3/19 - 3/20750 LV4.04444Tie
PPP (D)**PPP (D)**1/30 - 2/1850 RV3.43741Begich +4
PPP (D)PPP (D)7/25 - 7/28890 RV3.33946Begich +7
PPP (D)PPP (D)2/4 - 2/51129 RV2.94147Begich +6