Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Utah 4th District - Love vs. Owens


Mia Love

Mia Love (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Doug Owens

Doug Owens (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Utah Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Safe GOP

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Governor | SenateUT-4
2010: Governor | Senate | UT-2
2008: President
2006: Senate | UT-1 | UT-2 | UT-3
2004: President | Gov | Sen | UT-1 | UT-2 | UT-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleLove (R)Owens (D)Spread
Final Results----50.046.8Love +3.2
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones10/20 - 10/29402 LV4843Love +5
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones10/7 - 10/9400 LV4940Love +9
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones8/7 - 8/9443 LV4432Love +12

Race Analysis

Like most Western states, Utah's population is heavily urban, with most of its people living in Salt Lake City and its suburbs. The state's four congressional districts divide up the Democratic-leaning city roughly evenly. The old 2nd District -- which previously took up most of the central city -- elected Republican Enid Greene to replace Democrat Karen Shepherd in 1994. Greene imploded under the weight of a scandal involving her husband and was replaced by Republican Merrill Cook. Cook, a munitions manufacturer, seemed to be as unstable as the product he sold, and lost a primary in 2000 to computer tycoon Derek Smith; Smith lost the general election to Democrat Jim Matheson, son of former Gov. Scott Matheson.

Republicans tried to dislodge Matheson in 2002 by making his district heavily Republican, but he managed to hold on.  In 2012 they were unable to make the district much more Republican, so they tried splitting it up, forcing him to introduce himself to new voters.  That didn’t work either, as Matheson very narrowly defeated Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, an African-American Mormon. Love is back for a second try, and this time Matheson announced that he would not seek re-election.  She will face Doug Owens, the son of a former congressman.  Given the partisan lean of the district, Love begins as a heavy favorite.