Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Ohio 6th District - Johnson vs. Garrison

Candidates

Jennifer Garrison

Jennifer Garrison (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Bill Johnson

Bill Johnson (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Ohio Snapshot

RCP RankingLikely GOP
2014 Key Races: Governor | OH-14

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | OH-6 | OH-7 | OH-16
2010Governor | Senate | OH-1 | OH-6 | OH-10 | OH-12 | OH-13 |OH-15 | OH-16 | OH-18
2008: President | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-16
2006: Sen | Gov | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-18
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGarrison (D)Johnson (R)Spread
Final Results----38.658.2Johnson +19.6

Race Analysis

Eastern Ohio is a slice of Appalachia, a district that is older, whiter, and poorer than the country as a whole.  It is also a more conservative version of the district that sent Democrat Charlie Wilson to Congress for two terms (and Ted Strickland to Congress for six terms before that), having been made a few points more Republican in the 2012 redistricting.  Wilson took his 2010 re-election for granted, which was a mistake; he was upended by Bill Johnson in a close race.

Wilson came back for a second try in 2012, but ended up losing by a six-point margin. Former state House Majority Leader Jennifer Garrison provides a credible opponent for 2014, but 2014 looks like a worse year for Democrats than 2012, which doesn’t bode well for Garrison’s chances.