Nevada added a seat in the 2010 reapportionment, and Republicans had hoped that, given the solidly Democratic nature of the 1st District, they would end up with a swing district leaning their way. Instead, the 4th District, which encompasses North Las Vegas, the northern suburbs, and a few under-populated rural counties, has a distinct Democratic lean. It went for the president by double digits in 2008 and 2012, although it narrowly backed George W. Bush in 2004.
Republicans had hoped that they could compete in the district in 2012, and polls showed nominee Danny Tarkanian, son of the legendary UNLV basketball coach, in the lead in the closing weeks. But state Senate Majority Leader Steve Horsford ended up winning by eight points. Assemblyman Cresent Hardy is the Republican nominee this time around, and if Hispanic turnout is disproportionately down from 2012, this could be a surprising race. But the smart money is on Horsford at this point.