----------PAST KEY RACES----------
|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Bost (R)||Enyart (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||--||52.7||41.6||Bost +11.1|
|WeAskAmerica*||10/1 - 10/1||909 LV||3.3||45||40||Bost +5|
This downstate district is really an amalgamation of two older districts: A heavily Democratic district based in East St. Louis, and a rural district grounded in the fertile farmland near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers. The rural portion is anchored by the city of Cairo (pronounced Kay-roh), which had high hopes of using its favorable positioning to become a great metropolis, but found that the frequent flooding in the area made it too inhospitable for permanent settlement.
Both areas once were Democratic -- the farmland had been settled by Southerners -- but today this is a swing area of the country. Redistricting did little to shore up the area, but Democrats anticipated that Jerry Costello would be able to hold the district for the foreseeable future. However, Costello retired in 2012. Democrat Bill Enyart held the district in a good Democratic year against a weak Republican opponent. Enyart has run a lackluster re-election campaign, and he might be an underdog to state Rep. Mike Bost at this point. If Bost wins, he’ll be the first Republican to represent St. Clair County since 1942.