Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Illinois 11th District - Senger vs. Foster


Bill Foster

Bill Foster (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Darlene Senger

Darlene Senger (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Illinois Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key RacesGovernor | Senate | IL-8IL-10 | IL-12 | IL-13IL-17

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | IL-8 | IL-10 | IL-11 | IL-12 | IL-13 | IL-17
2010Gov | Sen | IL-8 | IL-10 | IL-11 | IL-14 | IL-17
2008: President | IL-10 | IL-11
2006: Governor | IL-6 | IL-8
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEFoster (D)Senger (R)Spread
Final Results------53.246.8Foster +6.4
WeAskAmerica9/30 - 9/30918 LV3.24744Foster +3

Race Analysis

The suburbs of Chicago have historically been fertile territory for moderate Republicans. So in the post-2010 redistricting, Democrats tried something different: They turned the 11th district into a winding collection of precincts joining together Democratic portions of Joliet, Bolingbrook, and Aurora.

The resulting district was too strongly Democratic for Republican Judy Biggert to win re-election, and Bill Foster – who had won a special election to replace Denny Hastert in a neighboring district in 2008 – won the seat handily.

This D+8 district shouldn’t be competitive (although Barack Obama’s popularity in Illinois probably inflates the district’s apparent partisan tilt). But we can’t ignore polling showing Foster with only a modest lead over state Rep. Darlene Senger. In a huge wave, this could flip, but it isn’t clear we’re heading that way right now.