----------PAST KEY RACES----------
|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Foster (D)||Senger (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||--||53.2||46.8||Foster +6.4|
|WeAskAmerica||9/30 - 9/30||918 LV||3.2||47||44||Foster +3|
The suburbs of Chicago have historically been fertile territory for moderate Republicans. So in the post-2010 redistricting, Democrats tried something different: They turned the 11th district into a winding collection of precincts joining together Democratic portions of Joliet, Bolingbrook, and Aurora.
The resulting district was too strongly Democratic for Republican Judy Biggert to win re-election, and Bill Foster – who had won a special election to replace Denny Hastert in a neighboring district in 2008 – won the seat handily.
This D+8 district shouldn’t be competitive (although Barack Obama’s popularity in Illinois probably inflates the district’s apparent partisan tilt). But we can’t ignore polling showing Foster with only a modest lead over state Rep. Darlene Senger. In a huge wave, this could flip, but it isn’t clear we’re heading that way right now.