Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Illinois 10th District - Dold vs. Schneider

Candidates

Robert Dold

Robert Dold (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Brad Schneider

Brad Schneider (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Illinois Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: GovernorSenate | IL-8IL-11 | IL-12 | IL-13IL-17

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | IL-8 | IL-10 | IL-11 | IL-12 | IL-13 | IL-17
2010Gov | Sen | IL-8 | IL-10 | IL-11 | IL-14 | IL-17
2008: President | IL-10 | IL-11
2006: Governor | IL-6 | IL-8
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEDold (R)Schneider (D)Spread
Final Results------51.648.4Dold +3.2
WeAskAmerica9/30 - 9/30919 LV3.24446Schneider +2

Race Analysis

The heart of Illinois Republicanism was once found in the collar counties surrounding Chicago, in towns like Waukeegan, Fox Lake and Libertyville. But over time, demographic change and the movement of northern suburbanites toward the Democratic Party has eroded those partisan loyalties.

The 10th District includes many of the interior northern suburbs of Chicago. The district historically voted for moderate Republicans like Jonathan Edward Porter and Mark Kirk; in 2010 it followed suit and sent Bob Dold to Congress. But redistricting pulled the district further leftward, and Dold lost a close race to Brad Schneider in 2012.

Dold is back for a rematch, and is by all accounts in a close race with Schneider. Whether this district falls probably has a lot to do with whether the generic ballots showing a close race nationally or a large Republican lead end up most resembling the truth.