|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Appel (D)||Young (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||--||42.3||52.9||Young +10.6|
|Loras College||10/21 - 10/24||280 LV||5.9||44||46||Young +2|
|Remington Research Group (R)*||10/11 - 10/13||663 LV||3.8||42||46||Young +4|
|Loras College||9/2 - 9/5||300 LV||5.6||40||34||Appel +6|
Iowa’s 3rd District is the most urbanized district in the state. Nearly three-fourths of the district’s population lives in cities (for the most part, they live in Des Moines). Iowa’s districts are drawn by an independent commission which pays no attention to past voting behavior or even the incumbents’ addresses. The results are some of the quirkier districts in the country, districts which all include diverse populations and defy easy classification. The district is a classic swing district, with a Cook PVI of zero.
Democrat Leonard Boswell lost a head-to-head matchup with Republican Tom Latham when they were redistricted together in 2012, but Latham promptly retired. Former state Sen. Staci Appel was the Democrats’ first choice for this seat, but David Young, former chief of staff for Sen. Chuck Grassley, was not the Republicans’ first choice. Still, the national environment seems to be making this a close race, and Young could end up winning in the end.