Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Iowa 2nd District - Miller-Meeks vs. Loebsack


Dave Loebsack

Dave Loebsack (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Iowa Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Leans Dem
2014 Key RacesGov | Sen | IA-1 | IA-3 | IA-4

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | IA-1 | IA-2 | IA-3 | IA-4
2010Governor | Senate | IA-1 | IA-2 | IA-3
2008: President
2006: Governor | IA-1 | IA-3
2004: President | Senate | IA-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoELoebsack (D)Miller-Meeks (R)Spread
Final Results------52.547.5Loebsack +5.0
Loras College10/21 - 10/24279 LV5.95138Loebsack +13
Loras College9/2 - 9/5300 LV5.64932Loebsack +17

Race Analysis

For three decades, southeastern Iowa was represented by a mild-mannered Republican congressman named Jim Leach. Notwithstanding the Democratic tilt of the district -- Kerry won 55 percent of the vote in 2004 -- Leach managed to hang on through a number of tough re-election efforts. But 2006 proved to be too much even for a congressman with Leach’s moderate record, and he lost to Dave Loebsack, a professor of international relations at Cornell College.

Loebsack has been a reliably liberal vote, but it didn’t hurt him in 2008 against ophthalmologist Mariannette Miller-Meeks; he cruised to a 57 percent to 39 percent victory, though he ran a few points behind Barack Obama. In 2010, the environment in Iowa was terrible, and Miller-Meeks lost by only two points. Miller-Meeks is back again in what looks to be an environment similar to 2010. Polling shows a close race. Loebsack is the favorite, but there’s real upset potential here.