Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Iowa 1st District - Blum vs. Murphy


Rod Blum

Rod Blum (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pat Murphy

Pat Murphy (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Iowa Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key RacesGov | Sen | IA-2 | IA-3 | IA-4

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | IA-1 | IA-2 | IA-3 | IA-4
2010Governor | Senate | IA-1 | IA-2 | IA-3
2008: President
2006: Governor | IA-1 | IA-3
2004: President | Senate | IA-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBlum (R)Murphy (D)Spread
Final Results------51.248.8Blum +2.4
Loras College10/21 - 10/24282 LV5.94442Blum +2
Loras College9/2 - 9/5300 LV5.63335Murphy +2

Race Analysis

The 1st Congressional District is northeastern Iowa. For much of the country’s history, this was Republican territory -- the Democratic Party of Iowa, such as it was, was concentrated in the west. But during the Vietnam War and the Nixon years, this area slowly trended Democratic. In 2004, it gave John Kerry 53 percent of the vote.

During the 1990s and 2000s, the district elected Jim Nussle to Congress. A conservative Republican, he survived a series of relatively close contests before running for governor in 2006. He lost the governor’s race, badly, and Democrat Bruce Braley was easily elected to take his place in Congress. Braley was re-elected by a wide margin in 2008 over token opposition, as President Obama was carrying his district with 65 percent of the vote. In 2010 the race was much closer; Braley won by two points.

Braley is running for Senate this year, which in theory should be helping out the Democrat, state Rep. Pat Murphy, against GOP candidate Rod Blum, who does not hold elected office. But the polling shows a close race, which is confirmed by the parties’ actions. This is a real tossup.