Race Analysis

Redistricting transformed the renumbered 9th District from an amalgam that reached well into the San Francisco Bay Area, into a district centered solidly on Stockton and the surrounding region. This area was hit hard by the financial collapse and hasn’t really seen many signs of the rebound that the country has enjoyed elsewhere. The city has declared bankruptcy, and pensions are at risk.

Nevertheless, Jerry McNerney remains the favorite in this blue-leaning (D+6) district. He was close to 50 percent in the primary, and his opponent, Tony Amador, hasn’t raised much money. McNerney was viewed as something of an accidental congressman when he won in 2006, but he’s favored to get a fifth term in Congress.