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California 7th District - Ose vs. Bera


Ami Bera

Ami Bera (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Doug Ose

Doug Ose (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

California Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Governor | CA-3CA-9 | CA-10 | CA-16CA-21 | CA-24CA-26 | CA-31 | CA-36 | CA-52

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President Senate | House
2010Governor | Senate | House
2008: President | CA-4
2006: Governor | CA-4 | CA-11
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBera (D)Ose (R)Spread
Final Results----50.449.6Bera +0.8

Race Analysis

The 7th Congressional District of California (formerly the 3rd) was formerly a labyrinthine amalgam of precincts ranging from the Nevada border to suburban Sacramento to the San Francisco exurbs. But redistricting centered the district cleanly on the Sacramento suburbs, and pulled it leftward.

This spelled trouble for Congressman Dan Lungren. Lungren, who had represented a portion of Greater Los Angeles in Congress before winning an election as state attorney general in 1990 and then losing a gubernatorial race to Gray Davis in 1998, had won an easy election in 2004 to replace Republican Congressman Doug Ose.

But as the district shifted, Lungren found himself winning by narrower margins, even in good GOP years like 2010. In 2012, his luck ran out and he lost to Ami Bera in the general election. This time, Bera faces off against Ose. The total Democratic vote in the primary was less than the total Republican vote, which isn’t a great sign for Bera. There hasn’t been a lot of polling here, but the DCCC recently shifted resources here, indicating that there is a competitive race.