Race Analysis

California’s 52nd District covers most of the city of San Diego, the various naval facilities, and some Republican-leaning areas to the north. The district had been traditionally Republican. After Randy “Duke” Cunningham was forced to resign from Congress following his plea agreement on various corruption charges, Brian Bilbray – who had lost an election in an earlier version of the neighboring 53rd District in 2000 – narrowly held the district for the GOP in 2006. But redistricting removed some heavily Republican portions of the district, and Bilbray was dragged under in the 2012 elections.

The winner of that election, former San Diego City Councilman Scott Peters, hasn’t had any “firing offenses” during his tenure, but the Obama administration’s unpopularity is clearly a drag in this Democratic-leaning district. The GOP nominee, former City Councilman Carl DeMaio, is seeking to become the first openly gay Republican elected to Congress. This district is reasonably well-polled, and all signs point to a tight race.