----------PAST KEY RACES----------
|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Renteria (D)||Valadao (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||--||41.5||58.5||Valadao +17.0|
|SurveyUSA||10/15 - 10/20||554 LV||4.3||42||47||Valadao +5|
|SurveyUSA||9/3 - 9/8||439 LV||4.7||37||56||Valadao +19|
10/22/14 -- The latest SurveyUSA poll shows a much tighter race than before. The district is very difficult to poll due to the extraordinarliy high non-citizen population, but Valadao might just have a race on his hands now.
Democrats were excited about the candidacy of Amanda Renteria, one of the top recruits of the 2014 cycle. In this 72 percent Hispanic district, which gave Barack Obama 55 percent of the vote, she was viewed as having a strong chance of knocking off Republican David Valadao, who defeated a weak challenger in the 2012 elections. But things haven’t panned out as Democrats had hoped: Valadao received 63 percent of the vote in the all-party primary, and Democrats pulled advertising dollars from the race to focus on shoring up vulnerable seats elsewhere. The race isn’t over, but it may be that Renteria has to wait for 2016, with higher minority turnout likely, to win this seat.